2024 Playoffs- 3rd Round: Minnesota Timberwolves - Dallas Mavericks- MAVS WIN 4-1!

[BigDirk41]

I have a great feeling about where the Mavs are in this series, but I'm not so sure I agree with this, just yet. That was NOT Edwards' best effort the other night (or the best defensive effort from McDaniels, for that matter). I think both of them are capable of making things much harder for Luka/Kyrie than what they showed in game 1. 

This game 2 is going to be illuminating on several fronts, but my guess is that we come out of it with a much bigger sense of what the Mavs are up against in this series.

This isn't aimed at you Killer, but why does everyone assume that wasn't their best effort just because they say so. They are an inexperienced and overconfident, borderline arrogant team. They got punched in the mouth and instead of manning up, they made so many excuses, I've lost count. 

Our role players didn't shoot well. Luka had a terrible first half. Our defense wasn't there until the 2nd half. What I saw what the TWolves getting the majority of the 50/50 balls until the 4th.  There's a lot more we can do better as well and they are one special Luka game from being in a serious hole. 

One more thing about Edwards effort. It was his best effort on that particular night and that's why he was dead tired. The real question is does he have the tank to guard Kyrie and play offense at an elite level. I don't think he does, but we'll see. Jamal Murray literally couldn't get around Ant so Ant was just moving literally on most plays and not chasing. He has to chase Kyrie all over the damn floor. 

I just feel like everyone is selling the Mavs short. Not you in particular, but overall from the media. Even if we lose tonight, we still have home court. We've already done our job regardless with a chance to kinda bury them. 2-0 isn't a done thing, but I like our chances up 2-0.

[KillerLeft]

This isn't aimed at you Killer, but why does everyone assume that wasn't their best effort just because they say so. They are an inexperienced and overconfident, borderline arrogant team. They got punched in the mouth and instead of manning up, they made so many excuses, I've lost count. 

Our role players didn't shoot well. Luka had a terrible first half. Our defense wasn't there until the 2nd half. What I saw what the TWolves getting the majority of the 50/50 balls until the 4th.  There's a lot more we can do better as well and they are one special Luka game from being in a serious hole. 

One more thing about Edwards effort. It was his best effort on that particular night and that's why he was dead tired. The real question is does he have the tank to guard Kyrie and play offense at an elite level. I don't think he does, but we'll see. Jamal Murray literally couldn't get around Ant so Ant was just moving literally on most plays and not chasing. He has to chase Kyrie all over the damn floor. 

I just feel like everyone is selling the Mavs short. Not you in particular, but overall from the media. Even if we lose tonight, we still have home court. We've already done our job regardless with a chance to kinda bury them. 2-0 isn't a done thing, but I like our chances up 2-0.

I can't speak for anyone else, but if I kNOW that wasn't their best effort because I've been watching the playoffs. Trust me, it wasn't. If you watch that Jason Timf video that details all of their defensive breakdowns, you'll see a ton of unforced mistakes that they haven't been making this post season. Don't get me wrong, the change of opponent (new issues to deal with) was part of that, but not all of it. 

If I'm assuming anything, it's that MIN will do better after what they probably consider an embarrassing game 1, but I think that's a safe assumption. 

I also assume the Mavs, who played a GREAT game 1 outside of shooting, will shoot better, and frankly, that might be a LESS safe assumption. 

I still like the Mavs' chances a lot, but I have a sneaky feeling game 1 might be the easiest victory for them in the series (at least while the series outcome is in doubt)

I totally agree that the Media doesn't fully understand how good the Mavs are, or exactly why they're as good as they are (they're starting to figure it out) but I have seen Minnesota do some awe-inspiring things, recently. Edwards scares the piss out of me.

[KillerLeft]

On the other hand, I also believe that Minnesota was built with beating Denver in mind (by Denver's old GM, no less) and that a drop coverage defensive team is sort of a tailor-made opponent for the Mavs in some ways.

Anything could happen, and that's what's so great about the NBA playoffs. All we know is that a 7-game series can be a roller coaster of emotions, so I'm trying to keep my expectations at a realistic level in order to guard my own state of mind.

[The Jom]

Game 1 lead official Mark Davis, known for calling it fair, right? I’m a whiner. Always complain about the reffing. But not in game 1. Game 2????? You know it’s coming. Instead of 49 threes they’re gonna shoot 49 FTs.

Mavs still might have a chance if our shooters get hot. Minny has now lost 4 of last 6 games, including 3 of last 4 at home. That’s after winning their first 6 playoff games. Pretty amazing collapse. But still, this is the most likely game for them to win. If they lose it, we’re talking a likely sweep.

[SleepingHero]

I'm sorry but you don't hang 33 on a team in the first quarter when you're exhausted from the previous series, either mentally or physically. The Mavs didn't play to their potential either so I think they find out tonight that the Mavs are the better team and we go up 2-0. Had they ended up beating us, none of the exhausted or effort stuff would have ever been mentioned. It's an inexperienced team that doesn't know what it takes at this level and just because they want to play better doesn't mean that we can't also. Mavs go up 2-0 tonight!

Listen they knocked out the defending champs. That alone grants them some credence in "what it takes at this level." They didn't even fold when Denver stormed back and went up 3-2. 

Minny is tough. They scare the shit out of me. But I agree, the Mavs didn't really have a great game all things considered. If they had an average shooting game they probably win that game by 10-12 points. I don't expect Minny to hit 18 threes again. They've only hit 14 or more threes 3 times so far in the playoffs, including against Dallas. They're usually good for 10-12 a game. 

6 less threes and keeping the defense strong in the paint could really make life hard for Minny. I hope Dallas is ready for them!

[BigDirk41]

I'd say the other way to look at Minnesota is they are a team that is 2-4 in their last 6 games. They've lost 3 in a row at home. Edwards has averaged 20 ppg on 35% shooting over the last 4 games. Maybe that's who they are this late in the season. They also can't load up on Luka like they did at times with Joker because of Kyrie. I watched the TWolves vs Nuggets series and I saw great defense at times, but they also don't have a 2nd superstar. I just think these are 2 different situations. Ant could literally lock Murray up like he was playing against his kid. Even if he contains Kyrie at some point, he cannot lock him up.

[KillerLeft]

Game 1 lead official Mark Davis, known for calling it fair, right? I’m a whiner. Always complain about the reffing. But not in game 1. Game 2????? You know it’s coming. Instead of 49 threes they’re gonna shoot 49 FTs.

Mavs still might have a chance if our shooters get hot. Minny has now lost 4 of last 6 games, including 3 of last 4 at home. That’s after winning their first 6 playoff games. Pretty amazing collapse. But still, this is the most likely game for them to win. If they lose it, we’re talking a likely sweep.

I agree, the perception is that Edwards is going to come back with a much better game (even among officials, who are human). It's reasonable to expect a little confirmation bias on that from the whistles. 

But, one of Minnesota's biggest weaknesses is that they WILL commit some dumb, unnecessary fouls, so I'm hoping a change in allowed physicality might also benefit the Mavs. 

The thing that's not clear to me yet is this: The Wolves played drop for two reasons. 1) because that keeps Gobert in a role he's much more comfortable playing, and 2) because it allows them to play 2-on-2 in the pick and roll, which takes away all of those corner threes Dallas loves to create (I think PJ's and Green's big hits late might have been the only ones they got off, but might be forgetting 1-2). We know that Luka/Kyrie are both going to eat in the midrange against deep drop (or even a medium drop), but in game 1, the Wolves ALSO gave up lobs and wraparounds to the centers. The Mavs KILLED them in paint points, which was surprising. Can the wolves take ONE of those two sources of offense (probably the paint points) away WITHOUT changing their strategy enough to give up the corner 3's? In other words, can they improve upon their plan by simply executing it better, or are we about to see them completely abandon it one game into the series? This is the fascinating question, at least for me.

[BigDirk41]

Also the Mavs are 7-2 in their last 9 playoff games.

[KillerLeft]

Listen they knocked out the defending champs. That alone grants them some credence in "what it takes at this level." They didn't even fold when Denver stormed back and went up 3-2. 

Minny is tough. They scare the shit out of me. But I agree, the Mavs didn't really have a great game all things considered. If they had an average shooting game they probably win that game by 10-12 points. I don't expect Minny to hit 18 threes again. They've only hit 14 or more threes 3 times so far in the playoffs, including against Dallas. They're usually good for 10-12 a game. 

6 less threes and keeping the defense strong in the paint could really make life hard for Minny. I hope Dallas is ready for them!

I agree with most of this, but I kind of feel like that was GREAT defensive game for the Mavs, especially considering it was the first game of the series. It was the first series of the Jason Kidd era where I felt the Mavs were more prepared for game 1 (both tactically and emotionally) than their opponent.

[Smitty]

I agree, the perception is that Edwards is going to come back with a much better game (even among officials, who are human). It's reasonable to expect a little confirmation bias on that from the whistles. 

But, one of Minnesota's biggest weaknesses is that they WILL commit some dumb, unnecessary fouls, so I'm hoping a change in allowed physicality might also benefit the Mavs. 

The thing that's not clear to me yet is this: The Wolves played drop for two reasons. 1) because that keeps Gobert in a role he's much more comfortable playing, and 2) because it allows them to play 2-on-2 in the pick and roll, which takes away all of those corner threes Dallas loves to create (I think PJ's and Green's big hits late might have been the only ones they got off, but might be forgetting 1-2). We know that Luka/Kyrie are both going to eat in the midrange against deep drop (or even a medium drop), but in game 1, the Wolves ALSO gave up lobs and wraparounds to the centers. The Mavs KILLED them in paint points, which was surprising. Can the wolves take ONE of those two sources of offense (probably the paint points) away WITHOUT changing their strategy enough to give up the corner 3's? In other words, can they improve upon their plan by simply executing it better, or are we about to see them completely abandon it one game into the series? This is the fascinating question, at least for me.

The biggest change they can make is something you already highlighted from the Hoops Tonight podcast. Simply go under the screen and see if Luka will take 15 3’s and have an off night. Risky of course but there’s only so much they can take away. Have to live with something.

[BigDirk41]

I agree with most of this, but I kind of feel like that was GREAT defensive game for the Mavs, especially considering it was the first game of the series. It was the first series of the Jason Kidd era where I felt the Mavs were more prepared for game 1 (both tactically and emotionally) than their opponent.

The last 3 quarters were great defensively by the Mavs, but had Kyrie not put up 24 in the first half, I believe we lose and this is a whole different argument. I don't feel like they were better prepared. I feel the defense did it's job and our 2 superstars took it upon themselves to win game 1 and they did. Kyrie carried them the first half while the other guys were struggling including Luka and then Luka brought it home in the 4th. The first quarter was atrocious.

[KillerLeft]

The last 3 quarters were great defensively by the Mavs, but had Kyrie not put up 24 in the first half, I believe we lose and this is a whole different argument. I don't feel like they were better prepared. I feel the defense did it's job and our 2 superstars took it upon themselves to win game 1 and they did. Kyrie carried them the first half while the other guys were struggling including Luka and then Luka brought it home in the 4th. The first quarter was atrocious.

Anthony Edwards was NOT prepared for all five defenders to be either next to him or with one foot in the paint every time he got the ball. He had no idea what to do., which is the main reason he was ineffective. The comparison I made the other day was LeBron against Dallas in 2011. LeBron was a much better player already than what he showed in that series, but he didn't UNDERSTAND (at the time) how to attack the defense Dallas designed to stop him.

Luka and Kyrie were both VERY prepared with how to attack deep drop coverage in the pick and roll. They've seen that for years.

I have no idea if Kidd's defense will continue to stifle Edwards. I feel like if it does, the Wolves will have games where the open threes don't drop as well as they did in Game 1. But, if Edwards CAN figure it out, I ALSO have no idea whether or not Kidd has anything else in mind that might be equally confusing, either. 

What I do know is that while both PJ and DJJ are amazing defenders, neither of them can neutralize Edwards the way they did in game 1 without the help of scheme confusing him. If he figures out how to break the defense, we're going to see some 40-50 point games from him, a bunch of offensive rebounds for the wolves off of his misses because the Dallas bigs have to help, etc. Kidd's plan to just let McDaniels shoot is absolutely the right one to my mind, even if he's red hot for the whole series. I just don't know yet if that choice will always be up to him, so to speak.

[SleepingHero]

I agree with most of this, but I kind of feel like that was GREAT defensive game for the Mavs, especially considering it was the first game of the series. It was the first series of the Jason Kidd era where I felt the Mavs were more prepared for game 1 (both tactically and emotionally) than their opponent.

I think having a healthy Luka for a game 1 for a change was the biggest reason the Mavs looked as good as they did. 

But you're right, the Mavs looked prepared and came out with focus. I hope to see them carry those same vibes tonight. Especially since Minny is going to be giving it their all.

[KillerLeft]

I think having a healthy Luka for a game 1 for a change was the biggest reason the Mavs looked as good as they did. 

But you're right, the Mavs looked prepared and came out with focus. I hope to see them carry those same vibes tonight. Especially since Minny is going to be giving it their all.

For sure!

And even if Minnesota plays twice as well as they did, that doesn't mean the Mavs are guaranteed to lose, either! 

I'm done underestimating our Mavs, I just don't want to underestimate the Wolves, either.

[SleepingHero]

https://twitter.com/ClutchPoints/status/...5500319190

@ClutchPoints
"I saw that man [Luka] hit a three on my team, come back down and hit another three and look dead at me."

Lil Wayne on how Luka Doncic thrives on the road


Even Lil Wayne is terrified of his team playing against Luka Doncic.

[KillerLeft]

https://twitter.com/ClutchPoints/status/...5500319190

@ClutchPoints
"I saw that man [Luka] hit a three on my team, come back down and hit another three and look dead at me."

Lil Wayne on how Luka Doncic thrives on the road


Even Lil Wayne is terrified of his team playing against Luka Doncic.

I forget, which team does he follow? Is the Clippers? I'll never forget the "Luka a ho" tweet.

[MaxiThreeba]

Anthony Edwards was NOT prepared for all five defenders to be either next to him or with one foot in the paint every time he got the ball. He had no idea what to do., which is the main reason he was ineffective. The comparison I made the other day was LeBron against Dallas in 2011. LeBron was a much better player already than what he showed in that series, but he didn't UNDERSTAND (at the time) how to attack the defense Dallas designed to stop him.

Luka and Kyrie were both VERY prepared with how to attack deep drop coverage in the pick and roll. They've seen that for years.

I have no idea if Kidd's defense will continue to stifle Edwards. I feel like if it does, the Wolves will have games where the open threes don't drop as well as they did in Game 1. But, if Edwards CAN figure it out, I ALSO have no idea whether or not Kidd has anything else in mind that might be equally confusing, either. 

What I do know is that while both PJ and DJJ are amazing defenders, neither of them can neutralize Edwards the way they did in game 1 without the help of scheme confusing him. If he figures out how to break the defense, we're going to see some 40-50 point games from him, a bunch of offensive rebounds for the wolves off of his misses because the Dallas bigs have to help, etc. Kidd's plan to just let McDaniels shoot is absolutely the right one to my mind, even if he's red hot for the whole series. I just don't know yet if that choice will always be up to him, so to speak.

Ant’s big games can be soul crushing.  He doesn’t seem to have quiet big games like SGA did, or like Luka and Kai sometimes will.  You feel every one of his baskets when he’s in rhythm.  

He’s in a little stretch here where he hasn’t been good in 3 of his last 4 games, with the exception being the 45 point beat down in Game 6.  

He’s shot 17-55 in Games 5, 7, and Game 1.  That 6-24 performance would have gotten totally different coverage if the Nuggets don’t blow that lead. 

He’s 22.  This is his first rodeo.  It will be fascinating to see if he’s ready to put the bad performances behind him and be the type of bounce back player Luka is.  I could see it going either way with such a young and playoff inexperienced player.  Maybe the scoring struggles snowball on him, or maybe he responds with one of those signature games.

He’s an elite talent and I love his swagger.  I hope this first go round is just a bit too big for him but I’m definitely not holding my breath!

[KillerLeft]

Ant’s big games can be soul crushing.  He doesn’t seem to have quiet big games like SGA did, or like Luka and Kai sometimes will.  You feel every one of his baskets when he’s in rhythm.  

[SleepingHero]

https://x.com/pandahank41/status/1793867...24511?s=46&t=aXKRiW-azG9kQCJ6C0TGng

Dereck Lively's defense on Rudy Gobert from the start of the season vs. last game.

Sheeeeeeeeesh

[SleepingHero]

I forget, which team does he follow? Is the Clippers? I'll never forget the "Luka a ho" tweet.

I honestly don't know. I think he has like 4 teams he rotates depending on vibes. Seen him at Lakers, Clippers, Suns, and Knick games. 

I forgot about that tweet and I am now waiting to repost it after Luka drops 50/12/16 tonight.