05-16-2021, 10:38 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-16-2021, 10:48 AM by DanSchwartzgan.)
For a variety of reasons, I'd like to start a John Collins thread.
1. Reporting we were interested in him at the TDL
2. Reporting we offered Maxi
3. Atlanta's seeming unwillingness to go beyond Jaylen Brown money
4. Schwartz
I'd like to concentrate here on the how since I wrote about the why in the Roster Thread (quick summary below):
1. Doesn't marginalize Brunson by adding another guard
2. Provides an important role for Green (Defensive) by not adding another guard
3. Is a significant upgrade from Maxi who can play next to KP or next to Powell/WCS because of his diverse skills
4. Allows KP to play his preferred C position and still keep a second big on the floor
5. Keeps a 20 a night big on the floor on nights KP sits
6. Is a significant FA win and fulfills Donnie's prediction that outside shooting wings and PF's will want to play with Luka
7. Lands what is arguably a third star
If you assume Kawhi and Chris Paul stay put, Collins is arguably the top of the 21 free agent class. A number of teams with cap room need what he does...including Dallas. I'd point out San Antonio, OKC, Charlotte and Miami. Cleveland could get there by shipping off Nance for future picks to pair Collins with Jarrett Allen. I'm leaving NY (Randall), Toronto (Siakam) and Memphis (JJJ) off this list, but they all have the room to do it also. It is reasonable to argue Collins isn't worth a Max $28.1mm deal. But reasonable isn't the GM for any NBA team with cap room. Between SA and OKC, there is a pretty good chance someone will throw out the full max with the 4th year PO and a 15% trade kicker and up front payments (basically the worst thing possible for Atlanta to match).
There are issues with all of those teams. SA, OKC and Cleveland aren't very good and wouldn't be even with Collins. Charlotte is on the rise, but Collins would play C there. Plus, Charlotte would have to flush two Schwartz guys, Zeller and Monk, to create room. Then you have Dallas and Miami...more attractive markets and more competitive rosters. But, Collins is third fiddle on both. Note that Collins went to HS in West Palm Beach.
There are two paths to Collins...make the offer and have him sign the offer sheet (at that point Atlanta is in control). Or, negotiate a S&T before Collins signs an offer sheet with someone else. You have to have the room to make the offer, so Dallas has to "renounce" Bird rights on THJ and JRich (assuming he opts out). Miami has to "reject" the Team Option on Dragic. I make the distinction because a team can un-renounce a player if things don't go their way. I don't think Miami can "un-reject" its team option. The other thing to bear in mind is the player has to want to go to a team to sign an offer sheet or agree to a S&T. Atlanta is not in position to designate a preferred destination if they like Team A's S&T offer better than Team B's. It is a game of chicken at that point. Atlanta might love what OKC is offering in a S&T better than what Dallas is offering. But they can't make Collins agree to go to OKC. Atlanta's recourse is to say "go ahead and bring me an offer sheet", but with so many suitors, Collins (Schwartz) is likely to do so and then Atlanta is stuck.
Two other notes...because of the size of the raise, Collins has to go to a team with cap room (either buy signing the offer sheet or by S&T). So, the list of suitors is finite. Atlanta can't just say, man we'd look great if Boston would send us Jaylen Brown as BYC will kill that deal. Second, I'm not sure the "they'll just sign him to trade him later" thing works necessarily. A max for a guy who can't create his own shot is an over-pay and the overpay comes with unattractive features in the offer. Plus, Atlanta has to take back $20-something million in salary. They are probably better off taking what they can get in a S&T and keeping their powder dry.
I think Dallas and Miami are in the best position here. Both can be contenders with that one more significant guy. Dallas has the Schwartz connection and Miami has the home town thing. It also helps that there are legitimate threats out there to deliver a max offer sheet if Atlanta doesn't negotiate a deal. In a S&T situation, Dallas probably offers Maxi and Miami probably offers Achiuwa, who doesn't possess a 3 point shot at this point. Miami can keep their holds on Robinson and Nunn, but not Dragic. Dallas can probably retain THJ and WCS in a S&T with Maxi outgoing. I don't know if Miami will prioritize Collins over a guard (they could sign Lowry outright and not send out Achiuwa). But, I see them as a bigger threat than most of the other teams with room. With that said, players like C. Wood and Grant opted for a bigger role on a bad team.
I think the play here is to "announce" agreement at 5:01 on 8/2, but not sign anything. It can also work if another team "announces" agreement with Collins and Dallas then swoops in to save the day and provide Atlanta a S&T out before the agreement becomes a signed offer sheet. If Dallas can do this as a Maxi based S&T, we are essentially moving on from JRich and Maxi in exchange for Collins. That's quite a talent upgrade and Green can do a lot of what JRich does defensively. The biggest issue appears to be defense, but Collins doesn't necessarily own that. He's actually the sixth best PF in D-RPM this season if you trust that metric. But, KP has to take some responsiblity for making this work. He was once a good defender and suddenly wasn't. Nothing says he can't suddenly regain that status. If he could and if/when Green is ready to join DFS as a starter (does he really need to score on a unit with three 20-point scorers who can all hit from the outside?), this could be a good (not great) D and an historically good O.
1. Reporting we were interested in him at the TDL
2. Reporting we offered Maxi
3. Atlanta's seeming unwillingness to go beyond Jaylen Brown money
4. Schwartz
I'd like to concentrate here on the how since I wrote about the why in the Roster Thread (quick summary below):
1. Doesn't marginalize Brunson by adding another guard
2. Provides an important role for Green (Defensive) by not adding another guard
3. Is a significant upgrade from Maxi who can play next to KP or next to Powell/WCS because of his diverse skills
4. Allows KP to play his preferred C position and still keep a second big on the floor
5. Keeps a 20 a night big on the floor on nights KP sits
6. Is a significant FA win and fulfills Donnie's prediction that outside shooting wings and PF's will want to play with Luka
7. Lands what is arguably a third star
If you assume Kawhi and Chris Paul stay put, Collins is arguably the top of the 21 free agent class. A number of teams with cap room need what he does...including Dallas. I'd point out San Antonio, OKC, Charlotte and Miami. Cleveland could get there by shipping off Nance for future picks to pair Collins with Jarrett Allen. I'm leaving NY (Randall), Toronto (Siakam) and Memphis (JJJ) off this list, but they all have the room to do it also. It is reasonable to argue Collins isn't worth a Max $28.1mm deal. But reasonable isn't the GM for any NBA team with cap room. Between SA and OKC, there is a pretty good chance someone will throw out the full max with the 4th year PO and a 15% trade kicker and up front payments (basically the worst thing possible for Atlanta to match).
There are issues with all of those teams. SA, OKC and Cleveland aren't very good and wouldn't be even with Collins. Charlotte is on the rise, but Collins would play C there. Plus, Charlotte would have to flush two Schwartz guys, Zeller and Monk, to create room. Then you have Dallas and Miami...more attractive markets and more competitive rosters. But, Collins is third fiddle on both. Note that Collins went to HS in West Palm Beach.
There are two paths to Collins...make the offer and have him sign the offer sheet (at that point Atlanta is in control). Or, negotiate a S&T before Collins signs an offer sheet with someone else. You have to have the room to make the offer, so Dallas has to "renounce" Bird rights on THJ and JRich (assuming he opts out). Miami has to "reject" the Team Option on Dragic. I make the distinction because a team can un-renounce a player if things don't go their way. I don't think Miami can "un-reject" its team option. The other thing to bear in mind is the player has to want to go to a team to sign an offer sheet or agree to a S&T. Atlanta is not in position to designate a preferred destination if they like Team A's S&T offer better than Team B's. It is a game of chicken at that point. Atlanta might love what OKC is offering in a S&T better than what Dallas is offering. But they can't make Collins agree to go to OKC. Atlanta's recourse is to say "go ahead and bring me an offer sheet", but with so many suitors, Collins (Schwartz) is likely to do so and then Atlanta is stuck.
Two other notes...because of the size of the raise, Collins has to go to a team with cap room (either buy signing the offer sheet or by S&T). So, the list of suitors is finite. Atlanta can't just say, man we'd look great if Boston would send us Jaylen Brown as BYC will kill that deal. Second, I'm not sure the "they'll just sign him to trade him later" thing works necessarily. A max for a guy who can't create his own shot is an over-pay and the overpay comes with unattractive features in the offer. Plus, Atlanta has to take back $20-something million in salary. They are probably better off taking what they can get in a S&T and keeping their powder dry.
I think Dallas and Miami are in the best position here. Both can be contenders with that one more significant guy. Dallas has the Schwartz connection and Miami has the home town thing. It also helps that there are legitimate threats out there to deliver a max offer sheet if Atlanta doesn't negotiate a deal. In a S&T situation, Dallas probably offers Maxi and Miami probably offers Achiuwa, who doesn't possess a 3 point shot at this point. Miami can keep their holds on Robinson and Nunn, but not Dragic. Dallas can probably retain THJ and WCS in a S&T with Maxi outgoing. I don't know if Miami will prioritize Collins over a guard (they could sign Lowry outright and not send out Achiuwa). But, I see them as a bigger threat than most of the other teams with room. With that said, players like C. Wood and Grant opted for a bigger role on a bad team.
I think the play here is to "announce" agreement at 5:01 on 8/2, but not sign anything. It can also work if another team "announces" agreement with Collins and Dallas then swoops in to save the day and provide Atlanta a S&T out before the agreement becomes a signed offer sheet. If Dallas can do this as a Maxi based S&T, we are essentially moving on from JRich and Maxi in exchange for Collins. That's quite a talent upgrade and Green can do a lot of what JRich does defensively. The biggest issue appears to be defense, but Collins doesn't necessarily own that. He's actually the sixth best PF in D-RPM this season if you trust that metric. But, KP has to take some responsiblity for making this work. He was once a good defender and suddenly wasn't. Nothing says he can't suddenly regain that status. If he could and if/when Green is ready to join DFS as a starter (does he really need to score on a unit with three 20-point scorers who can all hit from the outside?), this could be a good (not great) D and an historically good O.