04-29-2021, 06:42 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-29-2021, 06:58 AM by Thukydides.)
I thought this question is so huge, that it deserves it´s own thread. Also I feel like the discussion around it has evolved in a few different threads. Furthermore I wanted to add a poll.
So here are the facts:
Current salary for 2020/21:
J-Rich - 10.865 mio - he has a player option for next year at 11.615 mio
THJ - 18.975 mio - he is a UFA
Cap-hold:
J-Rich (if opted out) - 16.5 mio
THJ - 28,5 mio (crazy!)
1st scenario: J-Rich opts in
Given his poor play, I have become more and more hesitant, if J-Rich will in fact opt out. I still think him opting out is more likely, as there isn´t really a good FA market and a few franchises with cap room. It certainly isn´t the worst market to be a FA.
Still, let´s assume he opts in. That would mean his 11.615 mio would become guaranteed (I don´t want to discuss, what that means for Mavs FA ambitions in this thread.) If you keep THJ, then the offseason is basically over. So I assume J-Rich basically will decide, what we´ll do with THJ´s caphold, as I can´t see us holding THJ on the books, if J-Rich opts in.
2nd scenario: J-Rich opts out
This is, where it gets really interesting. I could see arguments for any strategy here except keeping both capholds on the book. I think in this case it comes down to either renouncing both or renouncing one of them. This leads us to the crucial question: What do we pay THJ or J-Rich?
In my eyes, there are only these realistic outcomes:
- J-Rich opts in and we let Timmy go.
- J-Rich opts out and we renounce Timmy: Given J-Rich would be interested in staying, I wouldn´t pay him more than 8 mio per year. He´s shown
nothing this year that suggests he deserves a double digit contract.
- J-Rich opts out and we keep Timmy on the books: Given THJ would be interested in staying, I would offer THJ 12 mio per year. His defensive limitations are real and as much as I enjoy him as a offensive spark plug, with Luka and KP the margin for error on the defensive end is just too small to pay him a bigger portion of our cap.
- Both opt out and we just let them walk.
What do you think about these outcomes? Do you actually see us keeping THJ on the books, if J-Rich opts in?
Edit: Of course there is the possibility of renouncing the cap holds AND still resigning players. But this seems not very likely, as you can´t go over the cap in this case.
So here are the facts:
Current salary for 2020/21:
J-Rich - 10.865 mio - he has a player option for next year at 11.615 mio
THJ - 18.975 mio - he is a UFA
Cap-hold:
J-Rich (if opted out) - 16.5 mio
THJ - 28,5 mio (crazy!)
1st scenario: J-Rich opts in
Given his poor play, I have become more and more hesitant, if J-Rich will in fact opt out. I still think him opting out is more likely, as there isn´t really a good FA market and a few franchises with cap room. It certainly isn´t the worst market to be a FA.
Still, let´s assume he opts in. That would mean his 11.615 mio would become guaranteed (I don´t want to discuss, what that means for Mavs FA ambitions in this thread.) If you keep THJ, then the offseason is basically over. So I assume J-Rich basically will decide, what we´ll do with THJ´s caphold, as I can´t see us holding THJ on the books, if J-Rich opts in.
2nd scenario: J-Rich opts out
This is, where it gets really interesting. I could see arguments for any strategy here except keeping both capholds on the book. I think in this case it comes down to either renouncing both or renouncing one of them. This leads us to the crucial question: What do we pay THJ or J-Rich?
In my eyes, there are only these realistic outcomes:
- J-Rich opts in and we let Timmy go.
- J-Rich opts out and we renounce Timmy: Given J-Rich would be interested in staying, I wouldn´t pay him more than 8 mio per year. He´s shown
nothing this year that suggests he deserves a double digit contract.
- J-Rich opts out and we keep Timmy on the books: Given THJ would be interested in staying, I would offer THJ 12 mio per year. His defensive limitations are real and as much as I enjoy him as a offensive spark plug, with Luka and KP the margin for error on the defensive end is just too small to pay him a bigger portion of our cap.
- Both opt out and we just let them walk.
What do you think about these outcomes? Do you actually see us keeping THJ on the books, if J-Rich opts in?
Edit: Of course there is the possibility of renouncing the cap holds AND still resigning players. But this seems not very likely, as you can´t go over the cap in this case.