01-06-2021, 08:32 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-06-2021, 09:14 AM by DanSchwartzgan.)
Interesting data from Tim Cato's piece on the lineup change. It kind of highlights the "eye test vs. data" debate that often rages around here. Cato starts out talking about whether things were really that bad defensively with Powell as a starter:
"Powell has conceded 85% of shots he's defended, per the NBA's stat site".
Well, that explains the eye-test part. If it appears that every player who takes a shot against Powell makes that shot it is because that is exactly what is happening. Then Cato goes on to say:
"but the starting lineup with him (Powell) has only allowed a 100.9 defensive rating - almost 10 points better than last season's average and six points better than the team's overall rank."
This is somewhat backed up by D-Rating where bigs so far this season have the following ratings:
Johnson 99
Powell 103
WCS 104
Maxi 106
All of those are actually really good numbers. Dallas is 6th in the league in Opponents PPG and 11th in the league in Defensive Rating. Dallas is playing better D and it wasn't just this one game against Houston.
Rebounding was abysmal with a non-rebounding C like Powell playing as a stand-alone big. You might get by with that if Powell's well established lack of board prowess was surrounded by Luka and another big. But it was a killer when he was run out there by himself. Powell's rebounding is off this season compared to his pedestrian past, but at least part of the team's putrid rebounding has to be laid at the feet of the decision maker who thought we could get by with him as your single big. As I've said before, none of our bigs is well equipped to run out as a stand-alone big against the starting bigs from other teams. Running out WCS AND Maxi is not apples to apples compared to what we did for six games.
The most interesting point Cato made was that our historic "O" is really what killed us. Six games in we were only managing 90 PP100 with the starters in. Ouch. It was easy to see WCS's electric athleticism on finishes compared to the still recovering Powell (despite the fact WCS sets really sloppy picks). It is also in the numbers. Powell has averaged an O-Rating of 132.6 the last 3 seasons. Through seven games he's at 113. He's not alone here. Luka is down from 116 last season to 108. THJ is down from 116 to 112 and DFS is down from 122 to 109. To me, the question is chicken or egg. Was Powell's lack of lift killing Luka's game or was Fat Luka's poor play killing the "O" (or both). At least through one game you have to tip the scale more heavily toward Powell being the issue, because the moment he sat, Luka looked like Luka again.
I realize this isn't like my usual defense of Powell. I've consistently complained about the single big approach and have said neither Maxi or WCS would work any better than Powell (I've not seen anything to disprove that). I've preached patience and been surprised that people are so down on him. He's had seven fewer months to recover than KD. It is a miracle that he's playing at all. My main objections come when people make sweeping statements about Powell's past. The team has done very well with him on the floor the last three seasons despite what our lying eyes tell us. The main reason for going through all of this was to have the real data out there a week or a month from now when posters try to create a narrative that the team was horrendous defensively with Powell as a starter. Number one, Powell alone isn't comparable to playing two bigs and number two, it isn't true. Team D was actually very good despite Powell's inability to guard anyone or secure a defensive board. Hopefully in a week or two this will all be a long forgotten memory and the debate will rage as to who is the best pairing with KP.
"Powell has conceded 85% of shots he's defended, per the NBA's stat site".
Well, that explains the eye-test part. If it appears that every player who takes a shot against Powell makes that shot it is because that is exactly what is happening. Then Cato goes on to say:
"but the starting lineup with him (Powell) has only allowed a 100.9 defensive rating - almost 10 points better than last season's average and six points better than the team's overall rank."
This is somewhat backed up by D-Rating where bigs so far this season have the following ratings:
Johnson 99
Powell 103
WCS 104
Maxi 106
All of those are actually really good numbers. Dallas is 6th in the league in Opponents PPG and 11th in the league in Defensive Rating. Dallas is playing better D and it wasn't just this one game against Houston.
Rebounding was abysmal with a non-rebounding C like Powell playing as a stand-alone big. You might get by with that if Powell's well established lack of board prowess was surrounded by Luka and another big. But it was a killer when he was run out there by himself. Powell's rebounding is off this season compared to his pedestrian past, but at least part of the team's putrid rebounding has to be laid at the feet of the decision maker who thought we could get by with him as your single big. As I've said before, none of our bigs is well equipped to run out as a stand-alone big against the starting bigs from other teams. Running out WCS AND Maxi is not apples to apples compared to what we did for six games.
The most interesting point Cato made was that our historic "O" is really what killed us. Six games in we were only managing 90 PP100 with the starters in. Ouch. It was easy to see WCS's electric athleticism on finishes compared to the still recovering Powell (despite the fact WCS sets really sloppy picks). It is also in the numbers. Powell has averaged an O-Rating of 132.6 the last 3 seasons. Through seven games he's at 113. He's not alone here. Luka is down from 116 last season to 108. THJ is down from 116 to 112 and DFS is down from 122 to 109. To me, the question is chicken or egg. Was Powell's lack of lift killing Luka's game or was Fat Luka's poor play killing the "O" (or both). At least through one game you have to tip the scale more heavily toward Powell being the issue, because the moment he sat, Luka looked like Luka again.
I realize this isn't like my usual defense of Powell. I've consistently complained about the single big approach and have said neither Maxi or WCS would work any better than Powell (I've not seen anything to disprove that). I've preached patience and been surprised that people are so down on him. He's had seven fewer months to recover than KD. It is a miracle that he's playing at all. My main objections come when people make sweeping statements about Powell's past. The team has done very well with him on the floor the last three seasons despite what our lying eyes tell us. The main reason for going through all of this was to have the real data out there a week or a month from now when posters try to create a narrative that the team was horrendous defensively with Powell as a starter. Number one, Powell alone isn't comparable to playing two bigs and number two, it isn't true. Team D was actually very good despite Powell's inability to guard anyone or secure a defensive board. Hopefully in a week or two this will all be a long forgotten memory and the debate will rage as to who is the best pairing with KP.