04-25-2020, 12:43 PM
Before I start thinking about draft picks, trades and FA's, I wanted to spend some time on what we actually have. There is no single stat that perfectly summarizes player value. So, I put three compilation stats together to form a compilation of the compilations. I wanted to see where players rank league-wide. I decided to use RPM, the Simple Rating from 82games.com and 538.com's RAPTOR. Combining three imperfect numbers probably isn't great methodology, but it probably beats relying on any one of them. The thing I like about all three of these is they attempt to combine productivity with on-court impact.
There are 150 starters in the NBA. Arguably, every 30 players (one per team) creates a tier. For instance, players 121-150 are "5th starters" and 151-180 are 6th man types. It is obviously more complex than this, but one way to look at teams is to look at your top 9 players like a golf score. The lower the number (minutes weighted), the better the team (theoretically). All positions don't have an even distribution of talent, so I used positional ranks in addition to league-wide ranks.
Here are the numbers:
Mav stats.pdf (Size: 7.92 KB / Downloads: 39)
So, Luka is obviously a very good first team guy by both measures. KP is a top to middle second best player guy. This is encouraging since he wasn't good at all the first couple months. If you take only the back half of the season for KP, he's easily a #1. THJ surprised me. He's a middle of the pack to back of the pack second man. Many believe we need someone to come in and bump him to our 4th best player. Great, but according to these three stat sets, it will take quite an acquisition to do that.
The real hole here is at 4th/5th man. We don't really have a one. Yes, Brunson ranks between 4th and 5th best on the Mav's. But he and Luka haven't been productive together. Unless he can play with Luka, minutes will be limited. So, the best you can say about Brunson is he's an EXCELLENT 6th man. DFS, Curry and Powell are also very good 6th men. Maxi is a 7th man. That level of talent is unbelievable if they are on your bench. But two of them have to start. That definitely hurts your golf score.
The nice thing about filling holes on this roster is Luka, KP and THJ are all multi-positional. You can plug in a 3&D PG (why they pursued Beverly) or a 3&D Wing (why they liked Green). They showed interest in Derrick Jones Jr., TJ Warren, Gallinari and Covington at various times in the last year. All are SF/PF or PF/SF types (I call them Power Wings). I think those guys will continue to be the prototype for what we pursue. Given Curry's age (almost 30) and injury history and THJ's uncertain contract past next season, It wouldn't surprise me to see them draft another guard (PG or Wing) who can shoot. We don't need an immediate contribution, so we can develop this player. We are a little thinner at Power Wing and no one currently on the team is really a starter level guy. I think this need is more immediate and probably gets attacked through trade or free agency. As always, the overriding question is whether they will commit longer term money in 20/21 or go after someone on an expiring deal to preserve room for a 2021 FA chase.
There are 150 starters in the NBA. Arguably, every 30 players (one per team) creates a tier. For instance, players 121-150 are "5th starters" and 151-180 are 6th man types. It is obviously more complex than this, but one way to look at teams is to look at your top 9 players like a golf score. The lower the number (minutes weighted), the better the team (theoretically). All positions don't have an even distribution of talent, so I used positional ranks in addition to league-wide ranks.
Here are the numbers:
Mav stats.pdf (Size: 7.92 KB / Downloads: 39)
So, Luka is obviously a very good first team guy by both measures. KP is a top to middle second best player guy. This is encouraging since he wasn't good at all the first couple months. If you take only the back half of the season for KP, he's easily a #1. THJ surprised me. He's a middle of the pack to back of the pack second man. Many believe we need someone to come in and bump him to our 4th best player. Great, but according to these three stat sets, it will take quite an acquisition to do that.
The real hole here is at 4th/5th man. We don't really have a one. Yes, Brunson ranks between 4th and 5th best on the Mav's. But he and Luka haven't been productive together. Unless he can play with Luka, minutes will be limited. So, the best you can say about Brunson is he's an EXCELLENT 6th man. DFS, Curry and Powell are also very good 6th men. Maxi is a 7th man. That level of talent is unbelievable if they are on your bench. But two of them have to start. That definitely hurts your golf score.
The nice thing about filling holes on this roster is Luka, KP and THJ are all multi-positional. You can plug in a 3&D PG (why they pursued Beverly) or a 3&D Wing (why they liked Green). They showed interest in Derrick Jones Jr., TJ Warren, Gallinari and Covington at various times in the last year. All are SF/PF or PF/SF types (I call them Power Wings). I think those guys will continue to be the prototype for what we pursue. Given Curry's age (almost 30) and injury history and THJ's uncertain contract past next season, It wouldn't surprise me to see them draft another guard (PG or Wing) who can shoot. We don't need an immediate contribution, so we can develop this player. We are a little thinner at Power Wing and no one currently on the team is really a starter level guy. I think this need is more immediate and probably gets attacked through trade or free agency. As always, the overriding question is whether they will commit longer term money in 20/21 or go after someone on an expiring deal to preserve room for a 2021 FA chase.