John Collins...Our Third Star

[mvossman]

I kind of liked your thinking in the other thread that Dallas would go this path (Lonzo) or that path (JC).  I might add Lowry to the conversation.  This whole Bob V. thing puts added pressure to come up with a name guy.  But, rather than comment on that post, I’d rather do it here.

Let’s forget what we have and what they cost and what we thinkwe know and just design the guy we want in the front court with Luka.  Forget the unattainable names like Jokic, Embiid, Towns, Gobert, Giannis and Davis.  Let’s define the archetype.  I might have started my description for a team with Luka running the spread PnR with something like Powell in the PnR and Maxi in the corner?  I mean, I’d like him to flash into the post occasionally and get a bucket.  It wouldn’t kill me if he could ISO efficiently every now and then.  But, I don’t need him doing that all the time.  Just do the Powell thing well and the Maxi thing well.  Give me that and some guys on the perimeter hitting 3’s and we are a top five O for the next 10 years.

The issue is that JC isn’t a perimeter defender, nor is he a shot blocker.  He can hold his own as a paint defender, but he isn’t anchoring your D by any means.  But, he’s not that different than Powell or the 2021 version of Maxi defensively and we were pretty good the last few months and that was with the crappy version of KP.  I’m a huge fan of JC’s diverse offense and I think we just have to figure out the rim protection from somewhere else.  Collins has been a net positive the last three years (and it is still a net game when all is said and done).  And, he’s super efficient from just about everywhere.  His TS% has averaged (AVERAGED) .638 over his four year career.  My preference is trade matching if at all possible, but I’m in for the max here.  I think we can find a way to make KP/JC work and if we can’t, we move on from KP.

If I am designing a guy in the front court to match with Luka, defense is a big part of that consideration, especially considering Luka's limitations in that area.  My top priority would be a guy who can anchor the D, but also works well with Luka offensively.  I don't need that guy running ISOs, I just need him to create legitimate space, either as a shooter or "vertically" as a P&R guy.  Its obviously a bonus if he can do both, but I need him to be able to do one or the other.  That is why I would prioritize an Adams or a Turner over a Collins.

If we go the trade Maxi for Collins route, we are basically taking the previous years team and replacing Powell with Collins.  That team was first overall in offense, but a little below average defensively (and that was with the good version of KP and Powell).  Collins undoubtedly makes that offense even better, but he does not really do much for the defense.  If we look at the playoff series, we had 3 clear issues: the defense (particularly interior), the offense anytime Luka was off the court, and decision making anytime Luka was doubled.  I'm not sure how much Collins contributes to any of that.

If we can't find a way to make KP/JC work, then we move on from KP.  Then what?  If they don't work, it will be because the interior defense was simply not good enough.  At that point we need to trade out KP for a true defensive anchor.  The problem there is that most of those guys are not floor spacers, but P&R guys.  Putting a P&R guy in the starting lineup basically turns Collins into Maxi.  Do we really want to be paying the max for that?  If Atlanta lets this guy go, this will be the reason why.  With Capella out there he is basically Maxi with the starters and dominates second units with his interior play like Powell did back in the day.  There is a reason his production went significantly down when he started playing with Capella, and I am guessing it would be worse if they were not staggering minutes to get significant playing time as the lone big.

I don't have any doubt that Collins would improve the team, and would rather them pull that trigger than do nothing (it would certainly be an improvement over the last two off seasons) but I am just concerned that we would be firing our last big bullet for a guy that does not really address our specific problems.  If we end up getting Collins, I would greatly prefer that we figure out a way to pull the trigger for a KP for Turner trade.  That would get us our defensive anchor we desperately need, and allow Collins to replace KP offensive production with a much better fit with Luka.