Volatility & Two-Point Shots

[Dahlsim]

Watching that game I was seeing more 2 shots than pushing the ball for layups and dunks. That was eye test, so I decided to look up the shot charts for games 1, 2 and 3. 

Game 1:

https://www.nba.com/game/dal-vs-lac-0042...ame-charts

20 shots outside the restricted area and inside the 3 line.

Game 2:

https://www.nba.com/game/dal-vs-lac-0042...ame-charts

24 shots outside the restricted area and inside the 3 line.

Game 3:

https://www.nba.com/game/lac-vs-dal-0042...ame-charts

32 shots outside the restricted area and inside the 3 line.

In games 1 and 2, I see the restricted area is filled up with X's and O's. Game 3 there are a few. Either the Clippers stopped them from going to the hoop, or the Mavs stopped trying, or some combination of both. I just remember even Luka jacking up more jump shot 2's than the previous 2 games and thought it a bit odd.

The other big thing is FT accuracy. WTF is going on with that? 

Good find.    
Not at all mysterious that the team that can get high percentage efficient shot attempts tends to do better.  

The 3's are more efficient than the 2's when they are taken under less pressure with good looks and those good 3 point looks are generated most often because the defense has to honestly protect the paint and rim while still trying to recover to contest the 3's. 

It's symbiotic.  When neither Luka or anyone else is really providing consistent 2 point threat then naturally all of the scoring becomes volatile.