PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (4-3) vs #5 DAL (3-4)

[Hogmelon]

P(g) = probability that Clippers win any given game

P(S) = probability that Clippers win the series

P(g)               P(S)
0.5               18.75%
0.55             25.62%
0.6               33.70%
0.65             42.84%
0.68619        50.00%
0.7               52.82%
0.71534      56.00%
0.75             63.28%
0.8               73.73%

Has this been a case of Mavs overachieving and Clippers underachieving, with a "nature will correct itself" revelation coming, or is the entire NBA subculture guilty of overrating the Clippers while underrating our Mavs? We'll know in a week, but right now I can't call it. My heart hopes it's the latter, but my brain is scared to declare it confidently.

Maybe ... the Clippers have been "underachieving" slightly,  and the Mavs have been "overachieving" slightly.

In the regular season, the Clippers won 65.3% of their games, and the Mavs won 58.3% of their games.  The Mavs won two out of three regular season games against the Clippers (with point differentials of +51, +16, and -10).

For whatever reason(s), the Clippers have dug themselves an 0-2 hole, and even if the Clippers are, slightly,  the better team (and even if "nature will correct itself"), I would contend that the probability the Clippers will win four games in this series (before the Mavs win just two more games) is less than 40%.

For example:

If, in each of the remaining games of this series, the probability of a Clipper win is 65% (and the probability of a Mav win is only 35%), then the probability that the Clippers will win the series is only 42.84%.  I certainly think the Mavs are far superior to the "average" opponent of the Clippers, against whom they won 65.3% of their regular-season games.  I also think that playing Games 3, 4, and 6 in Dallas boosts the Mavs' win probabilities (to something a helluva lot better than 35%) in those games.  Etc.