PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (4-3) vs #5 DAL (3-4)

[Hogmelon]

Interesting that fivethirtyeight.com only has Mavs at 56% chance of winning the series, even though they're up 2-0.

It's like 2011 all over again.

Yes, very. 

I don't understand gambling very much, but could this be a response to all the money pouring in on the Mavericks? I read somewhere around here that they're the second most popular bet right now.

fivethirtyeight.com is basically a pure stats site--they are not affected by the gambling lines.

The 56% chance is based on their RAPTOR stat, which: "Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players." In other words, it doesn't really take into account the fact that the Clippers have been clearly out-coached for two games, and that the Mavs *as a team* have clearly outplayed the Clippers as a team for those same two games.

If you switch to their ELO forecast, which is actually tied to team results then the Mavericks currently have an 85% chance of taking the series.

If one assumes that all remaining games in the Mavs/Clippers series will be decided by a coin flip, using either a "fair" coin or a coin that has been precisely "weighted" in the Clippers' favor by a specific amount, then the following probabilities would apply:

P(g) = probability that Clippers win the game

P(S) = probability that Clippers win the series

P(g)               P(S)
0.5               18.75%
0.55             25.62%
0.6               33.70%
0.65             42.84%
0.68619        50.00%
0.7               52.82%
0.71534      56.00%
0.75             63.28%
0.8               73.73%

Obviously, this series will be decided on the basketball court rather than by coin flips [and P(g) is surely not constant from game to game], but this exercise should at least prove how much a fish needs a bicycle.