05-19-2021, 07:53 PM
I love this topic. The logic seems like it should be so clear. And it also seems like you should be able to find the data to sort out some tests.
It seems like a no brainer that if you are up by 2 possessions with a minute left, you put in Boban for a 2 pointer, and you have 60% possibility of being up by 3 possessions with 50 seconds left. It leaves a 40% chance of being up by 2 possessions with 50 seconds left. If the planned volatility by the other team works in their favor, they hit a 3 pointer within 10 seconds and your original lead has decreased - either by 1 or by 3 points. I think the Mavs stall-the-ball crunch time offense (that I do hate) follows a different logic. Up by 2 possessions with a minute left, dribble in place for 20 seconds before jacking up whatever shot you can get in the remaining shot clock. We often see a contested 3 or a turnover. Worst case is you are still up by 2 possessions with 40 seconds left. So the question is how valuable are those 10 seconds? You might say the Mavs opt for 0 volatility for those 10 seconds. In terms of investing, it's like telling your 75 year old uncle to not play the ponies with his ss check this weekend.
Other arguments that I can think of for going for the 3 pointer that dont have to do with clock management include staying within the flow of the offense you've built or that you might have players on the court who are perimeter players (theirs because they need the 3 pointers and yours because you'll be defending the 3 point line)
It seems like a no brainer that if you are up by 2 possessions with a minute left, you put in Boban for a 2 pointer, and you have 60% possibility of being up by 3 possessions with 50 seconds left. It leaves a 40% chance of being up by 2 possessions with 50 seconds left. If the planned volatility by the other team works in their favor, they hit a 3 pointer within 10 seconds and your original lead has decreased - either by 1 or by 3 points. I think the Mavs stall-the-ball crunch time offense (that I do hate) follows a different logic. Up by 2 possessions with a minute left, dribble in place for 20 seconds before jacking up whatever shot you can get in the remaining shot clock. We often see a contested 3 or a turnover. Worst case is you are still up by 2 possessions with 40 seconds left. So the question is how valuable are those 10 seconds? You might say the Mavs opt for 0 volatility for those 10 seconds. In terms of investing, it's like telling your 75 year old uncle to not play the ponies with his ss check this weekend.
Other arguments that I can think of for going for the 3 pointer that dont have to do with clock management include staying within the flow of the offense you've built or that you might have players on the court who are perimeter players (theirs because they need the 3 pointers and yours because you'll be defending the 3 point line)