05-19-2021, 07:00 PM
(05-19-2021, 04:24 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: Might be because the answer is so situation-dependent. ...
I can't claim any particular insight on the issue, but the question is interesting.
Very true as there is a number of ways to look at the issue as raised.
Volatility as it relates to the 2 point shot is the thread title. The 2 pointer is compared to the 3 pointer which I think is relevant to closing games yes but is also relevant to team consistency vs volatility throughout the game. Many times an unanswered scoring outburst for example can practically all but win a game even before the clutch time minutes arrive.
So a lot of stats can be relevant there since its really tied to the huge increase in the role of the 3 pointer across the league.
A point I find particularly interesting for example is that we often assume that NBA coaches have it all figured out so if we see something odd we figure they're the pro's and if they aren't doing what looks obvious it much be for good reasons we just don't see.
That is often true no doubt but its also true that coaches follow trends and mindsets as you pointed out. It can take years for them to adjust as a whole and that is what happened in fact with the 3 point shot.
Quote:When the NBA slapped a 3-point line on the court and declared certain shots worth more than other shots—the single most consequential rule change in modern sports—it would take years for basketball teams to realize they had different incentives. Slowly at first, and then with astonishing speed, they shot more and more 3-pointers. But for almost four decades, there was a limit. No team attempted 40% of its shots as threes.
Old habits are hard to break and it turns out to be true for NBA coaches as well.
Eventually though, the strategies for using the 3 point shot came around.
Quote:Then it happened in 2017. [color=var(--color-blue)]It happened again in 2018—but with two teams above the 40% threshold. That number would balloon to five in 2019 and nine in 2020. [/color]
But what’s happening this season is a rapid acceleration of a trend that has reshaped the game. There are currently 15 teams with 3-point rates above 40%. Half the league is now doing something that until recently no team in the history of the league had ever done.
So who is to say that right now teams aren't still figuring out how and when to balance the best use of 2 point offense in order to get an advantage over the 3 point dominant offenses they all face?