(05-18-2021, 04:09 PM)Jommybone Wrote: I haven’t run into any analysis of how volatility ought to affect 4th quarter offense as it pertains to taking 2s vs. 3s. If there is a good piece on this out there somewhere, no need to reinvent the wheel. But I would love to know thoughts here (especially from the advanced-stat gurus) about how time left on the clock should be factored into offensive decision making.
It seems obvious to me that, when you’re quite a ways behind, volatility is your friend. And I assume there must be more volatility in 3-point attempts than 2s. So duh, down by 10 or more, aim at the bulls eye.
Less obviously, it seems to me that in close games, it often matters more that you do score than it does how many points you get. So just like you ought to gradually move your retirement account into bonds and away from more volatile stocks as you near your personal end, doesn’t it make sense to think an offense ought to gravitate towards the higher percentage shots—and therefore, presumably, reduce exposure to volatility—as we move into and through the 4th quarter?
Is this right? And if so, what are the implications?
Excellent points well expressed!
Your reasoning has a prima facie strength to it, with or without advanced stats. From the point of view of the team coming back, opponents that are behind by big numbers have to both get stops on defense and score themselves
I've made the point repeatedly as it related to the Carlisle Mavs who at times were known to blow huge leads in very short time periods as their high powered offense last season could let a team back in as fast as it could put them in a hole.
In the Boban Watch thread we discussed some of the worst cases as Marjanovic can be very efficient even over periods from an offensive perspective, if used consistently which is rarely the case.
This season the Mavs by my eye test appear to be doing a much better job overall of holding their share of leads or at least not having as many late game epic fails thanks in large part to Luka's elite ability to score inside or generate high percentage looks for his teammates and his general ability to perform in the clutch. Luka doing much better from the 3 makes his threat inside that much harder to reliably defend.