05-18-2021, 05:00 PM
(05-18-2021, 04:35 PM)Arioch Wrote: That's kind of the point you seem to be missing. AD missing games due to injury could (in fact does) happen in any season. Anyone making predictions about the Lakers' seasons will always need to factor a fair amount of absences for AD into the estimate. Lebron's injury was less predictable, but he is getting older, and, again, a 30+ high-usage player spraining his ankle and missing a lot of games is the type of thing that can happen any season. Losing multiple key players to a pandemic and then getting them back at a percentage of their normal selves for an extended period while they recover is not something that happens every season--and it's not something that happened to every team or to the same degree to the teams it did impact.
In thinking about how the Lakers will do going forward, it's fair to factor in that the team now is different than the team that fell to 7th place in the absence of their stars. In thinking about how the Mavs will do going forward, it's fair to distinguish the second-half of the season team, post Covid troubles, from the first half of the season team.
The AD logic also applies in KPs case. Doesn´t it?
Some freak injuries will happen no matter what and some teams will be hit harder than others. COVID added another freak incident scenario. And yes COVID hit the Mavs harder than most teams. Only comparable teams are in the east (Celtics, Heat). Doesn´t mean that a max player going down with a fractured foot isn´t just as much of a season changer.
Overall the Mavs probably aren´t as good as the record in the 2nd half of the season suggests (easier schedule, somewhat healthy roster). They obviously aren´t as bad as the early season record suggested. That´s the only point I am trying to make. It´s not a good idea to use the best case scenario for a record prediction. As you mentioned. We have to account for health (injury-prone players missing games), schedule and many more things. Not even including any unpredictable scenarios (season ending injuries or COVID).