(05-17-2021, 09:33 PM)Hogmelon Wrote: No, sir, I didn't make any guesses (educated or otherwise) about the relevant probabilities. Draft Kings, on the other hand, seems to think that the smart money will come fairly close to agreeing with you (unless your "at best" qualifier swallows a significant chunk of your "20%").
My statements were just simple arithmetical facts (like 2 + 2 = 4), having nothing to do with the Mavs, or the Clippers, or basketball.
100C₀ = 360(1 - C₀)
100C₀ = 360 - 360C₀
460C₀ = 360
C₀ = 360/460 = 78.261%
270M₀ = 100(1 - M₀)
270M₀ = 100 - 100M₀
370M₀ = 100
M₀ = 100/370 = 27.027%
For whatever it's worth ...
I will cheerfully admit that some might label me "the eternal optimist," but I would estimate the probability of the Mavs winning the series against the Clippers is Pₘ, where 0.285 < Pₘ < 0.315.
(And 30% is a helluva lot more than 20%.)
