PLAYOFFS ROUND 1: #4 LAC (4-3) vs #5 DAL (3-4)

[Hogmelon]

In the 2020-21 regular season ...

The Clippers 3P% was greater than or equal to 40% in 43 games.  Their record in those games was 34-9.

The Clippers 3P% was less than 40% in 29 games.  Their record in those games was 13-16.

The Mavericks held their opponents to a 3P% less than 40% in 45 games.  The Mavs' record in those games was 33-12.

The Mavs' opponents had a 3P% greater than 40% in 27 games.  The Mavs' record in those games was 9-18.

Everyone on planet Earth (including Papua New Guinea) realizes that 3-point defense will be a key to the Mavs' winning their first-round series against the Clippers.

The Mavs do not need to totally  shut down the Clippers' 3-point shooting.  The Mavs only need to hold the Clippers down ... enough.

So ...

Is Rick Carlisle a better coach than Tyronn Lue?  Of course, he is!

Will Rick Carlisle be able to guide the Mavs to victory by holding down the Clippers' 3P%  just barely enough?   Who knows?!?!?

Stay tuned!!!  (And keep those pitchforks tuned!)

What is the probability that the Mavs will win their series against the Clippers if the Mavs hold the Clippers to less than 40% 3-point shooting (for the series)?

What about 39%?

38%?  37%?  36%?  35%?

Let X = Clippers' 3P% for the series
Let P = Mavs' probability of winning the series

Graph P(X).

                          

And ...

What is the probability that the Mavs will actually hold the Clippers to less than 40% 3-point shooting (for the series)?

What about 39%?

38%?  37%?  36%?  35%?

Graph it [because a picture is worth a thousand worms]!



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