Let's be real about what we had with Starter Powell

[DanSchwartzgan]

This post really opened my eyes.  Powell may be getting back to his old self.  The original vision had him as an athletic rim roller with potential defensive range to compliment KP's more varied offensive skills and in the paint defense.  This is a good time to find out if that will work.  If so, maybe the Mavs have their power forward upgrade and can just focus on snagging an all-star caliber shooting guard this off-season who can also defend point guards to round out the roster.  

Yes, this is a good time to find out...
Yes, "maybe" the Mavs have their upgrade and can just focus...

Now, what they will find out and whether they will do it are completely other matters.  "April-Powell" is +6.3 in +/- with O/D Ratings of 135/108 (Dallas career numbers are 126/108) and TS% of .717.  That's the Powell we all know and love (OK, "all" was probably too strong).  Tapping the brakes a little, it is only 14 minutes a game and his two starts have both shown negative results in his on-court time (but wins).  On a per 36 basis his scoring and rebounding are 13/8, which are close to his career averages.  BTW, before someone posts the outdated "yeah but Powell isn't the offensive player he was because he lost his lift" (because someone always does), Powell's Points Per Shot is 1.58 (96th Percentile) and his PnR Roll Man PPP is 1.22 (88th Percentile).  Both of those are entire season stats.

If I asked for guesses as to Powell's percentile rank in D-Lebron, D-RPM, D-Raptor, LA-DRAPM, D-Lebron Box and D-Box Plus Minus, how many would have come close to 89th, 82nd, 90th, 83rd, 85th, 81st?  BTW, those are full season numbers, not just recent numbers.  Maxi's ranks in the same categories are 81st, 83rd, 74th, 51st, 84th 55th.  There is a perception that Maxi is a better defender.  That is still true on the interior, but Powell (at least this season) has been much better on the perimeter and as a team defender.  Dallas gives up 108.1 with Powell in the game and 112.6 with Maxi in.  EFG% allowed is 50.5 for Powell and 52.1 for Maxi.  All of those are good numbers BTW.

Here is the thing I like about your proposition.  If (IF) KP/Powell backed up by Maxi/WCS becomes a thing and if (IF) it is successful, then Dallas has a better opportunity to fill holes.  To get to max $34mm room, you have to give up THJ, JRich, WCS and the small, but potentially valuable role Redick plays.  That is at least three holes.  If the big rotation doesn't need attention, you can focus $30mm on a starter for JRich and finding a bench scorer to replace THJ and Redick simultaneously.  That seems an easier task than doing both of those things and finding a starting big.  I'm dubious given how many C/PF rumors we heard at the TDL, but that was before "April-Powell" showed up on the scene.

Edit:  If you keep WCS's TO and JRich opts in, there is $20.6mm to spend (to essentially replace what THJ/Redick do).  Maybe that player starts and JRich sits.  $20.6mm is interesting in that it is the range that gets mentioned for DeRozan and Ball.  It is almost exactly the max for THT.  You can get Lowry his $50mm over two years starting at $20.6 by putting some money in a non-guaranteed 3rd year.  Powell, Dinwiddie and Fournier will surely all fit within that number.