Josh’s D

[HAguiar95]

Let's look at the on/off stats again for defense....

All season
On: 113.7 (1056 mins)
Off: 107.7 (965 mins)
Net: -6.0 (3rd worst on the team behind Luka and KP who is the worst by far)

His rating with Luka is 114.4, with KP is 116.3....so him playing with those guys has brought down his numbers some.



But let's look at the more recent stretch where the team is playing better D overall. Has JR's impact improved? 


Last 15 games
On: 109.1 (480 mins)
Off: 104.8 (240 mins)
Net: -4.3 (5th worst on team)

With Luka 108.8, with KP 107.4...so in the last 15 games his rating with Luka/KP has been better, so they haven't been bringing him down.


Last 10 games
On: 110.0 (332 mins)
Off: 103.3 (148 mins)
Net: -6.7 (worst on the team)

With Luka 108.5, with KP 107.1...so again Luka/KP are NOT hurting his numbers in the last 10 either.


There might be some things I have not seen that could explain some of what is going on, but when a player is dead last on the whole team (or close to) you can conclude quite confidently that this player is hurting the team in that area in some form or fashion (or his mesh with certain teammates is hurting the team).


Quick comments on my eye-test:

1) JR is a "flop" and "flail" kind of guy (you see this when he gets fouled and sprawls on the ground). 

2) This makes it seem that JR is giving good effort (which he usually is) AND it creates the illusion that he is playing great D. 

3) When I specifically watch JR play D I do NOT see an above average defender. I see a guy flying and flailing around the court, but I do NOT see a lock down defender and I do not see a guy who is playing elite help/team D. 

Point is this: Really take some time and watch JR play D (on ball D and off ball help D), he is not that good at it IMO. And the numbers bear this out this year. I think he has the potential to be a more average defender (what he was in MIA and PHI), but in no way do I think he will ever become a "defensive stopper" and I think asking him to be a "defensive stopper" like RC has done only makes things worse. 


Final point: I am fully in the keep THJ over JR camp this summer. 

While I do agree with the point about J-Rich's defenstye and overall impact (I'll wait till the playoffs to really bash him), I can't ignore your final point. J-Rich has been a major disappointment, negative impacts on offense and defense. But Timothy has been by far our worst defender and I don't get the J-Rich hate/THJ love (maybe because he puts up points against bad teams or because he's a likeable guy celebrating Luka), especially when we had an entire year of the latter combined with his pathetic performance in the playoffs.

Using LEBRON, to me the best stat there is to rate a player's impact on his team (role, usage, deployment, scheme and fit), not his overall talent, it meets the eye test:



Obviously it doesn't take into account all the COVID stuff (Josh had it and THJ had to play with a deflated lineup) buth Josh and Timothy are our worst players in terms of impact and both will hit Free Agency. Use this money to find a starter player that fits this system (do your job FO), this is our last chance before Luka's big contract. I don't mind overpaying as long as the player has a positive impact. Be aggressive and don't fall in love with our boys in blue. They should be plan C or D this summer. People don't want to pay an old guy like Conley/Paul/Lowry/DeRozan (big parts of their team's success), but keep in mind that THJ is 29 and J-Rich is 28. It's not like they're a part of our core or something.

Overall: I'm on the keep NEITHER here camp this summer[b]. [/b](unless I'm proven wrong on the postseason)