DRAFT: #18 [Green] & #31 [Terry] & trade for #36 [Tyler Bey]

[Dundalis]

I think some us are really overrating the impact of a rookie in his 1st season. How many are good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team? How many get a starting spot?
Just take a look at the top 3&D prospects from last years draft. Hunter and Reddish played starter minutes on a terrible Hawks team. They replaced vets like Bazemore and Carter and Hawks fans expected the defense to improve. Now we know that the Hawks had one of the worst defensive teams in NBA history. The drafted wing defenders were big negatives in their first season.
Jarrett Culver played 24 minutes for the Timberwolves. A team that is nearly as bad as the Hawks on defense. He was a liability on offense. Only shooting 30% from 3.

Obviously we also have some positive examples. After a mediocre first half of the season Cam Johnson was great in the bubble games and earned starter minutes. Compared to the regular season Tyler Herro isn´t getting as many minutes but he has proven himself as a reliable shooter.

I think in general my point still stands. If the Mavs want to be a playoff team next season they cannot rely on a rookie to play big minutes or even start.

I think you are forgetting Matisse Thybulle, Kendrick Nunn, Lu Dort, Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson, Darius Bazley all played significant minutes for playoff contending teams.  

Impact of rookies can't be overrated or overstated in todays NBA.  As skills training becomes better and better, skills are developed at an earlier age allowing rookies to make an earlier impact than ever.

Dort and Nunn went undrafted. Nunn is only playing garbage time minutes in the playoffs. Dragic replaced him as the starting PG. Dort was great and terrible at the same time. Great defense combined with questionable shooting mechanics.
Keldon Johnson only played 17 games this season and spend most of his time in the g-league. He had some good games in the bubble.
Bazley was a below average role player. Solid defender. Bad on offense.
Thybulle earned his role as a defensive specialist but he is a liability on offense as well.

Not a single high impact starter. Some talented role players but all of them have major flaws. Don´t get me wrong. I would love to have Thybulle or Dort on the roster but I don´t want them to play starter minutes in a playoff series against the Clippers. That´s what some posters expect from a future Mavs 1st round pick.
I get why. The Mavs desperately need 1-2 more starting caliber players and the draft might be a way to get one but I am also realistic. Just take a look at the numbers in the articles that I have linked below.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are...113d6b82e5

First, what does them being undrafted have to do with anything?  They were still rookies starting on playoff teams.  Moreover, Nunn comes off the bench for Heat in the playoffs after starting a majority of the regular season.  Thats hardly garbage time minutes. He was also hurt or had Covid I believe, causing him to be out before that.   So he is still working himself back into the rotation.

Keldon is ascending player, playing a big role down stretch of the season for a team contending for the playoffs.  Same with Bazley or Thybulle.  Many of these players will be starters as soon as next season.

Regardless this all come down to how you measure impact.  If its going to be by all star appearances, that's an almost impossible measure to grade on.  There are only 24 all star players in a given year.  So of course that it will be hard to find those type of players in a given draft. 

Furthermore, not all impactful players are all stars.  Was Jason Terry an impactful player for the Mavs? How many Allstar games did he play in?

To me impactful players are those who start or get starter minutes off the bench while producing points, rebounds or assists.  Those are readily available in every draft if a team evaluates talent correctly.

At least take a look at the articles before you respond. No point in having any discussion if you aren´t willing to do that. This is not only about allstar games. One of the links has a detailed breakdown that lists the chances to get a star, starter, role player, bust.
I initialy responded to multiple posts that proposed a potential mid first round pick as a starter next season. My response was that it is not very likely that any picked player will be good enough to start on a playoff team in his first year. Most aren´t even good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team.
Not really sure what is controversial about that opinion. Yes some rookies made an impact as solid role players this season. Others did not. On average it´s not very likely that any rookie will meet the expectations of this board. Of course some teams do a better job than others but looking at the Mavs history they aren´t among them.

It's this type of reasoning the Mavs have probably looked at and agreed with, which has caused them to treat the draft like absolute trash for the better part of 20 years, and miss out on players like Giannis.

Do we have a two year window or something? Is Luka 32 years old? If you aren't going to give yourself the opportunity to build properly with age appropriate players around a 21 year old phenom with over a decade at the top of his game ahead of him, you literally never will. You'll always be looking to be in win now mode. We don't need a rookie to be a star next season. We are low on both draft picks and youth. We do NOT have a young team. Our two best players just happen to be young. If we can't get a true difference maker, or a young player with good potential, I'd rather we take the draft seriously.

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I think you are forgetting Matisse Thybulle, Kendrick Nunn, Lu Dort, Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson, Darius Bazley all played significant minutes for playoff contending teams. 

Impact of rookies can't be overrated or overstated in todays NBA.  As skills training becomes better and better, skills are developed at an earlier age allowing rookies to make an earlier impact than ever.

Dort and Nunn went undrafted. Nunn is only playing garbage time minutes in the playoffs. Dragic replaced him as the starting PG. Dort was great and terrible at the same time. Great defense combined with questionable shooting mechanics.
Keldon Johnson only played 17 games this season and spend most of his time in the g-league. He had some good games in the bubble.
Bazley was a below average role player. Solid defender. Bad on offense.
Thybulle earned his role as a defensive specialist but he is a liability on offense as well.

Not a single high impact starter. Some talented role players but all of them have major flaws. Don´t get me wrong. I would love to have Thybulle or Dort on the roster but I don´t want them to play starter minutes in a playoff series against the Clippers. That´s what some posters expect from a future Mavs 1st round pick.
I get why. The Mavs desperately need 1-2 more starting caliber players and the draft might be a way to get one but I am also realistic. Just take a look at the numbers in the articles that I have linked below.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are...113d6b82e5

First, what does them being undrafted have to do with anything?  They were still rookies starting on playoff teams.  Moreover, Nunn comes off the bench for Heat in the playoffs after starting a majority of the regular season.  Thats hardly garbage time minutes. He was also hurt or had Covid I believe, causing him to be out before that.  So he is still working himself back into the rotation.

Keldon is ascending player, playing a big role down stretch of the season for a team contending for the playoffs.  Same with Bazley or Thybulle.  Many of these players will be starters as soon as next season.

Regardless this all come down to how you measure impact.  If its going to be by all star appearances, that's an almost impossible measure to grade on.  There are only 24 all star players in a given year.  So of course that it will be hard to find those type of players in a given draft. 

Furthermore, not all impactful players are all stars.  Was Jason Terry an impactful player for the Mavs? How many Allstar games did he play in?

To me impactful players are those who start or get starter minutes off the bench while producing points, rebounds or assists.  Those are readily available in every draft if a team evaluates talent correctly.

At least take a look at the articles before you respond. No point in having any discussion if you aren´t willing to do that. This is not only about allstar games. One of the links has a detailed breakdown that lists the chances to get a star, starter, role player, bust.
I initialy responded to multiple posts that proposed a potential mid first round pick as a starter next season. My response was that it is not very likely that any picked player will be good enough to start on a playoff team in his first year. Most aren´t even good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team.
Not really sure what is controversial about that opinion. Yes some rookies made an impact as solid role players this season. Others did not. On average it´s not very likely that any rookie will meet the expectations of this board. Of course some teams do a better job than others but looking at the Mavs history they aren´t among them.

Our positions are actually not that far apart. As I responded to you, if the Mavs don't have a moral assurance that the guy they would draft can be a playoff rotational (top 8 on the team in minutes) player next year while starting during the regular season (i.e., a Nunn-like profile), then it would be dumb-assed of them not to trade their pick. They need to improve the starting lineup bigtime. As I've said several times, it all comes down to letting Luka know, season by season, and in the most absolute of terms yes including next season, that they are far more serious about putting a winning team around him than the Bucks were with Giannis.

Eh, if Luka develops on his current trajectory, I think he could win a chip with "just" a supporting cast like Giannis has, because his game is far more suited to be dominant in the post season. This reasoning is also fraught with danger, because you could also end up completely handicapping yourself into zero flexibility and overpaid players putting you in a Bucks or let's say New Orleans Pelicans situation with AD where your "efforts" to scramble for win now pieces come back to bite you.