DRAFT: #18 [Green] & #31 [Terry] & trade for #36 [Tyler Bey]

[dirkfansince1998]

I think you are forgetting Matisse Thybulle, Kendrick Nunn, Lu Dort, Brandon Clarke, Keldon Johnson, Darius Bazley all played significant minutes for playoff contending teams.  

Impact of rookies can't be overrated or overstated in todays NBA.  As skills training becomes better and better, skills are developed at an earlier age allowing rookies to make an earlier impact than ever.

Dort and Nunn went undrafted. Nunn is only playing garbage time minutes in the playoffs. Dragic replaced him as the starting PG. Dort was great and terrible at the same time. Great defense combined with questionable shooting mechanics.
Keldon Johnson only played 17 games this season and spend most of his time in the g-league. He had some good games in the bubble.
Bazley was a below average role player. Solid defender. Bad on offense.
Thybulle earned his role as a defensive specialist but he is a liability on offense as well.

Not a single high impact starter. Some talented role players but all of them have major flaws. Don´t get me wrong. I would love to have Thybulle or Dort on the roster but I don´t want them to play starter minutes in a playoff series against the Clippers. That´s what some posters expect from a future Mavs 1st round pick.
I get why. The Mavs desperately need 1-2 more starting caliber players and the draft might be a way to get one but I am also realistic. Just take a look at the numbers in the articles that I have linked below.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are...113d6b82e5

First, what does them being undrafted have to do with anything?  They were still rookies starting on playoff teams.  Moreover, Nunn comes off the bench for Heat in the playoffs after starting a majority of the regular season.  Thats hardly garbage time minutes. He was also hurt or had Covid I believe, causing him to be out before that.   So he is still working himself back into the rotation.

Keldon is ascending player, playing a big role down stretch of the season for a team contending for the playoffs.  Same with Bazley or Thybulle.  Many of these players will be starters as soon as next season.

Regardless this all come down to how you measure impact.  If its going to be by all star appearances, that's an almost impossible measure to grade on.  There are only 24 all star players in a given year.  So of course that it will be hard to find those type of players in a given draft. 

Furthermore, not all impactful players are all stars.  Was Jason Terry an impactful player for the Mavs? How many Allstar games did he play in?

To me impactful players are those who start or get starter minutes off the bench while producing points, rebounds or assists.  Those are readily available in every draft if a team evaluates talent correctly.

At least take a look at the articles before you respond. No point in having any discussion if you aren´t willing to do that. This is not only about allstar games. One of the links has a detailed breakdown that lists the chances to get a star, starter, role player, bust.
I initialy responded to multiple posts that proposed a potential mid first round pick as a starter next season. My response was that it is not very likely that any picked player will be good enough to start on a playoff team in his first year. Most aren´t even good enough to make the rotation of a playoff team.
Not really sure what is controversial about that opinion. Yes some rookies made an impact as solid role players this season. Others did not. On average it´s not very likely that any rookie will meet the expectations of this board. Of course some teams do a better job than others but looking at the Mavs history they aren´t among them.

So this study you posted from 82 games is very simplistic and flawed.  First, I would like to know where his cutoff points for his rating system lay. 

Next, this rating formula he came up with to decide categories for players is highly flawed.  For example how are points, rated the same as rebounds and assist in the formula for a game that's decided by points.  

I give him props for studying that much data but its hard to take away anything from it.

Sorry. This is the detailed one. Also consider that we are talking about career value in comparisations like this.

https://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm


Bottom line is that on average a mid/late first round pick is a solid role player in his prime. Not his rookie season. Think about guys like Nick Collison or Boris Diaw. That´s what we can expect.

Side note: I am really getting into this topic right now. Jalen Brunson has already exceeded the average career value of his draft position.