07-05-2020, 09:54 AM
Thinking about Delon Wright this morning. With Brunson out, Wright will have to take on a bigger role in the offense. In fact, as one of only seven core guys left, I believe how Wright steps up (or doesn't) will be a huge swing factor in how well we do in the final 8 games and the playoffs.
I tried to find some data that would help me decide if I thought he had a chance at succeeding or not. The first thing was to see if I was romanticizing Wright's past (remember those triple doubles in Memphis last year). I have liked Wright for several years and have proposed trades to get him here in the past. Turns out, his raw and advanced data here compare relatively well to his career. He shot less here than in years past, but made more of his shots. Anyone interested in a tall guard who hits .385 on 3's and gets 6.6 boards and 5.6 assists per 36. BTW, his PER is 16 (4th among regulars) and his WS/48 is .148 (third among regulars). His VORP is second on the team and the differential between his O-Rating of 121 and his D-Rating of 109...12 points...is tied with Maxi for second best on the team (behind Powell who always puts up a crazy differential).
Why don't we like this guy? Part of it lies in the fact that his lineups don't tend to work. The team is six points per 100 better with Wright off the court. If you look at his history, he's had really bad years and really good years at this metric. The bad years tend to happen when he's pushed off the ball. When he's classified with most of his time coming at the point, his lineups have tended to do well. This may be a key to unlocking Wight in the "bubble". He's going to have to handle the ball more given who we have left. One other note on lineups, Wright paired with Maxi is awful. But, go to Cleaning the Glass (thanks Clutch) and you will see that Wright lineups without Maxi are really good.
Looking at his game log this season, he's much better on the road than at home and much better in wins than losses. I looked to see if I could find a pattern. For instance, is he better in games with more minutes? Mixed bag. Some great games and some stinkers when he gets over 25 minutes. What I discovered is Wright...and the team...tend to do better when Wright shoots the ball more. Set the benchmark at 8 shots per game and you'll find that the team is 15/5 in the 20 games that meet this criteria. Wins have come against Denver (2), LAL, HOU, TOR, Phil, OKC and Indy among playoff teams. Losses have come against LAL (2, but one was the infamous OT game), Utah, HOU (without Luka) and ATL (without Luka, KP and JB).
I think this is encouraging. Once the playoffs get here, I suspect we will largely play 7 players any meaningful minutes with Luka, Curry and Wright getting all the guard minutes. THJ will start and get his minutes at SF. DFS, Maxi and KP will soak up the 4/5 minutes with DFS getting minutes at SF when Hardaway sits. 7 guys playing 35 minutes each basically. It won't work that way exactly as some PG, Boban and Jackson will play some. But Wright is going to see about a 50% jump in minutes. It will likely be the biggest jump in role and minutes of anyone. How well he does with those minutes will go a long way in determining our playoff fate.
I tried to find some data that would help me decide if I thought he had a chance at succeeding or not. The first thing was to see if I was romanticizing Wright's past (remember those triple doubles in Memphis last year). I have liked Wright for several years and have proposed trades to get him here in the past. Turns out, his raw and advanced data here compare relatively well to his career. He shot less here than in years past, but made more of his shots. Anyone interested in a tall guard who hits .385 on 3's and gets 6.6 boards and 5.6 assists per 36. BTW, his PER is 16 (4th among regulars) and his WS/48 is .148 (third among regulars). His VORP is second on the team and the differential between his O-Rating of 121 and his D-Rating of 109...12 points...is tied with Maxi for second best on the team (behind Powell who always puts up a crazy differential).
Why don't we like this guy? Part of it lies in the fact that his lineups don't tend to work. The team is six points per 100 better with Wright off the court. If you look at his history, he's had really bad years and really good years at this metric. The bad years tend to happen when he's pushed off the ball. When he's classified with most of his time coming at the point, his lineups have tended to do well. This may be a key to unlocking Wight in the "bubble". He's going to have to handle the ball more given who we have left. One other note on lineups, Wright paired with Maxi is awful. But, go to Cleaning the Glass (thanks Clutch) and you will see that Wright lineups without Maxi are really good.
Looking at his game log this season, he's much better on the road than at home and much better in wins than losses. I looked to see if I could find a pattern. For instance, is he better in games with more minutes? Mixed bag. Some great games and some stinkers when he gets over 25 minutes. What I discovered is Wright...and the team...tend to do better when Wright shoots the ball more. Set the benchmark at 8 shots per game and you'll find that the team is 15/5 in the 20 games that meet this criteria. Wins have come against Denver (2), LAL, HOU, TOR, Phil, OKC and Indy among playoff teams. Losses have come against LAL (2, but one was the infamous OT game), Utah, HOU (without Luka) and ATL (without Luka, KP and JB).
I think this is encouraging. Once the playoffs get here, I suspect we will largely play 7 players any meaningful minutes with Luka, Curry and Wright getting all the guard minutes. THJ will start and get his minutes at SF. DFS, Maxi and KP will soak up the 4/5 minutes with DFS getting minutes at SF when Hardaway sits. 7 guys playing 35 minutes each basically. It won't work that way exactly as some PG, Boban and Jackson will play some. But Wright is going to see about a 50% jump in minutes. It will likely be the biggest jump in role and minutes of anyone. How well he does with those minutes will go a long way in determining our playoff fate.