2 hours ago
(Yesterday, 08:45 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I believe they had 14 before this and before the Kawhi deal - though the Christie brother is non-guaranteed. So, Beal is 15 and Ingram/Dick for Kawhi takes it to 16 before they figure out what they want to do with Mathurin.
Most probably recall that I've been on a construct that adds Watson to LAC (for DJJ) and Mathurin to DAL (for Gafford) as part of the larger Kawhi deal when it goes through. This was well before any reported interest in any of this - in fact, that was one of the critiques people had of this...that there was no reported interest. Of course, more and more we are hearing of Mathurin to Dallas talk and Watson to LAC talk - though admittedly, Dallas isn't the only team listed for Mathurin and LAC isn't the only team listed for Watson these days. In addition to actual reporting, I've listed bread crumbs in my past posts.
But as teams have filled their rosters, some of the original construction has become problematic. My original thought was they would take back DJJ in the Watson S&T. The are currently $2.0mm over Apron-2 and taking back DJJ makes that problem considerably worse. But, they don't have to take DJJ (in fact they can't take back salary if they are over Apron-2). If this is all one big trade, there is space to get Watson to a decent number with a less expensive player or potentially with no player at all coming back to Denver from LAC. I thought DJJ made sense positionally and lines up with things Denver has done in recent years as it swaps out more expensive players for less expensive players. But, it could just be draft capital and no returning player.
Here's another wrinkle that helps Denver in multiple ways. Denver could swap Cam Johnson for PJ Washington as part of the larger deal. PJ makes about $3.25mm less than Cam, which by itself would take Denver from roughly $2mm over Apron-2 to about $1.2mm under - an in position to legally take back salary. In that version, DJJ doesn't go to Denver at all. Denver gets a slightly cheaper starting forward in PJ as its return for helping facilitate Watson's S&T and stays below Apron-2 without having to dump other contracts.
Whether Denver would prefer PJ to Cam is a reasonable question. Cam's three point shooting is an offensive advantage next to Jokic. I'd argue PJ is the better defender, but when you add in the financial savings and the draft compensation Denver would get from LAC for Watson (who they can't keep anyway given their current tax situation), I think it is something management can sell to its fans.
From Dallas's perspective, they are getting much better three point shooting and an expiring contract in Johnson in addition to turning Gafford into Mathurin. Given all that we've done this offseason, moving PJ opens up more near term and long term flexibility. I'm not sure what the exact construction will be, but I still think there is enough smoke around Mathurin for Gafford and Watson to LAC - and reasons it might be delayed because of Kawhi - that this is worth continuing to monitor for breadcrumbs.