MAVS NEWS:

[Smitty]

I think we need to determine what a discount is first. I think $10M AAV is about right for Lively. If he plays more than 50 games this season and looks great, maybe he gets closer to $20M AAV in restricted free agency next summer? Then the Mavs just match... So, what's the number... That's the question...

LockedOn mentioned Mark Williams as a recent comp for Lively and his situation.

Williams was the 15th pick in the 2022 draft. 
He played 43 games -- 19 games -- 44 games his first 3 years. A total of 106. 
He averaged 23.7 mpg, 12.3 ppg, 8.8 rbs, 1.1 blk, 0.7 stl, 1.4 ast.
He did not get extended. 
Played 60 games in year 4 and it led to a contract of 3 years - $38M ($12.6M AAV), which he just signed, as a restricted FA, on July 7th.

Lively was the 12th pick in the 2023 draft. 
He played 55 games -- 36 games -- 7 games his first 3 years. A total of 98. 
He averaged 22.9 mpg, 8.4 ppg, 7.0 rbs, 1.5 blk, 0.6 stl, 1.6 ast.


Williams was able to play a career high in games, last year - year 4 (60), which led to a 3-year $38M deal. I think Lively is the better defensive player. Not quite as good offensively. Both were near-lottery picks in back-to-back years, and both have battled injuries/missed games. I think it was a good comp from the LockedOn guys.