07-27-2026, 09:57 AM
(07-25-2026, 08:19 PM)F Gump Wrote: The W/L question will be determined by how competitive their starters are, imo. Are they good enough to outdo opponents?
Kyrie
Max
Flagg
PJW
Gafford
3 of those are "solid starter" at best, but certainly not dominant. But how good will Flagg and Kyrie be? Good enough to make a difference? Perhaps.
We tend to forget, but when he was hurt, Kyrie was playing great (while Luka was injured for a long time) so that Mavs were winning about half the time, and the starting lineup was basically the same Kyrie, PJW, Gafford, with the other 2 being Klay and Dinwiddie.
Would replacing Klay and Dinwiddie with Max and Flagg make them worse than that .500-or-so lineup from before, or better?
Max (and Klay) should definitely be good enough to match Klay's contribution that year.
That leaves Flagg (and whether he can be as good as Dinwiddie).
My point is that the Mavs relative success is likely to be driven by how improved and good Flagg will be. I see him as the hinge point. His career track record has been that he is a super-fast learner when he plays at a higher level, and it doesnt take him long to level up to being one of the best. If that continues, there will be another jump this season, in which case I think the rest of the crew are good enough to result in a lot of winning, and be a big surprise.
Just to play devil's advocate:
That lineup played a total of 81 minutes together. Not sure how much we can read from such a small sample.
Kyrie was 32 when he got injured and will be turning 35 next season. Not sure we can count on him being the same player.
PJ and Gafford were brought in for Luka and have not looked the same since Luka was traded.
This team is still too light on creation and will be depending too much on Kyrie
We have a new coach with zero NBA experience (which historically has had dicey results).
Wins will be harder to come by with less tanking.
You made similar predictions last summer.
There are just so many variables going into this season. It's not just how big of a jump will Flagg make (I think it will be a big jump). What will we get from Kyrie, and can he stay healthy? Can we get anything from Livey? Will PJ and Gafford bounce back (if they are even still here)? What will we get from all the new additions? How will May adapt to the NBA? Given the lack of talent and all of the changes, its hard to see predicting this team any higher than the play-in.