Trade & Free Agency 2026/2027

[DanSchwartzgan]

"We’ve all seen the deals this summer that don’t guarantee all years of the contract and S&T deals only have to be guaranteed for the first year of the required three..."

Technically true factoid, but incredibly misleading to think it's relevant with Mathurin (which is why I didn't even mention it). 

From Mathurin pov, he is NOT going to sign his free agent deal with only one year guaranteed and then potentially not have a guarantee later. From Mavs pov, what's the point of signing a player and then waiving him in a year? It's not a one-year deal which you get to redo in a year. No way to later resign him for a different number. 

The one-year version works in using a not-in-demand player like KM as trade matching filler (in which case he often gets a bit more than he might otherwise), but it's certainly not what is used on a player who you plan to keep. 

Anyhow, any Mathurin SNT will undoubtedly be a 3-or-more year commitment (at generally whatever price range you start him). PERIOD. Let's not muddle the thinking on how he does (or doesn't) make sense to invest in by pretending otherwise. There won't be a one-year or a two-year commitment, it will be AT LEAST 3.

So, you don't think Mathurin is good, but you think he'll command at least a 3 year deal?

You don't think the Mav's would put themselves in position to guarantee only one year on a three year deal (giving them two seasons of Team Options), but you think Dallas will pass on the option for Risacher by October 31st putting them in an even riskier position?

There is a number between 3 and 1.  Here are some players in this range that changed teams this summer for two years (or often less guaranteed):

Anfernee Simons 2/2
Tobias Harris 2/2
Norman Powell 2/1-guaranteed
Rui Hachimura 2/1
Day'Ron Sharpe 2/1
Collin Sexton 2/2

Additionally, Hartenstein stayed in OKC with two of his three year deal guaranteed and John Collins went to a new team with one of his three year deal guaranteed.  Few people predicted there would be so many short term deals and many have commented how surprising it has been.  I don't think we can predict what M&M have in mind here with any certainty.  But, the higher the dollar amount, the shorter the guarantee would be my rule of thumb.  Something close to the MLE probably gets him three guaranteed years.  If it is closer to $20mm or more, then my best guess would be a three year deal with only two of the three guaranteed.