Trade & Free Agency 2026/2027

[Scott41theMavs]

So, let me talk about why I think this is even more likely after the Risacher deal.  

1.  Dallas is $2.3mm under the tax.  The absolute smallest salary Mathurin can receive and still legally match Gafford is $19,527,168 (half of that plus $7.5mm has to match $17,263,584).  If that deal were done today it is legal and would leave Dallas $34k under the tax.  Before you fire off the response that says Dallas won't cut it that close, stay with me a bit longer.

2.  Dallas has 16 players and has to move on from one of them.  If a deal for Mathurin goes through, the easy button is to cut Klay since we now have Mathurin as our bench scorer man. As I noted in a previous post, the savings Dallas would receive from Klay giving a buyout that matches the Vet Min contract he would receive elsewhere is $1.1mm (it is only part of the contract he receives and there is a formula for determining that).  Now, insteead of being $34k under the tax, Dallas would be the $34k plus $1.1mm - much more comfortable cushion.  

Note also that if this deal never happens and we start the year with Gafford and want to keep Klay, all we've spent to give us flexibility while we wait on the Kawhi debacle to sort itself out is the $1.1 million part of Cisse's salary that is guaranteed.  Teams want to be positioned to not be dependent on the kindness of others and that is what Dallas has done here.  The matching of Cisse and the space left under the tax after Risacher lines up well with this theory.

The next logical question is why hasn't this happened yet.  We've heard reporting that the six team Aldama trade almost became a 7 or 8 team trade with Watson going to LAC.  I think the Clippers are waiting on the Kawhi thing to shake out before sending Mathurin to Dallas for Gafford.  Their preference is Watson, but if it doesn't happen, they need to keep Mathurin.  Also, part of what they intend to pay Denver - besides DSJ - might be some of the picks/swaps coming from Toronto in the Kawhi deal.  I think the investigation is not only holding up the big deal that has been announced.  It is also holding up the Watson to LAC deal which in turn is holding up the Gafford for Mathurin deal.  

I agree with the sentiment that Mathurin would fit well off the bench.  You want guys like him playing with Larry so that someone can create for themselves if the play breaks down.  It also allows you to keep two good self-creators (from among Kyrie, Flagg and Mathurin) on the floor most of the time.  I agree with those who don't love him starting and taking the ball out of the hands of either Kyrie or Flagg.  I think out top 11 will get minutes something like this:

Kyrie/Larry               Sasser
Christie/Mathurin      Biberovic
Flagg/Naji-Risacher  
P. J./Aldama             Martin
Lively/Morez             Cisse

Good work. But given how uproariously long this stupid investigation has already gone, and the lack of evidence that it’s going to be over/resolved anytime soon, my presumption as a Mavs fan is that the fallout of the delay - or the unfavorable outcome - will be (among other things) that this deal won’t happen. Edit: for example, a good punishment for the Clipps if they were involved would be to reduce all of their salary cap amounts (soft cap, tax line, the two aprons) significantly, which would make it impossible for them to take on more salary.