3 hours ago
(3 hours ago)Scott41theMavs Wrote: Okay. Agree to disagree. As I said, I think there’s a pretty huge floor/upside composite gap between the top nine (Big 4 + the 5-9 Five) and everyone else. If it turns out they’re sour on whoever is left (and in spite of my tremendous respect for Masai and Schmitz, I still think they’re dead wrong if Flemings is that guy), then I’m okay with them trading down, but not with them reaching. Since we don’t control our pick for the next 4 years, this draft is way too important for that. I would compare my stance to that of ownership who wouldn’t let Nellie draft Dirk at 6 - he had to get Dirk + something else. Nellie was right about Dirk. Perot and co., incompetent as they were, were correct that he needed to get something else as well given the risk and importance of that draft.
I could bring up the DSJ disaster to make a case against the consensus pick but I don't think looking back at past drafts in hindsight helps either case. In the end it's about talent evaluation and in some cases the consensus option was the right choice. In others it didn't workout. Based on the odds at least one of the five guards is going to bust. But that's another narrative that shouldn't impact decision making.
They absolutely have to get it rid but I would argue that just picking whoever drops to #9 is the safe option. Not necessarily the best option. No one could blame them if things don't workout because it was the consensus pick. Thankfully Schmitz's and Ujiri's track record suggests that they aren't scared to make unpopular decisions in the draft.