2026 NBA draft thread

[mvossman]

This should absolutely be the mindset, whether it's Ament or someone else.  We have too little long-term talent to get pigeon-holed into taking a guard just because mock drafts and current positional need would point in that direction.  There are other ways to get guards and we have to have a vision for players beyond what they will do in 26/27.  

With that said, if you study drafts, there is a disproportionate amount of failures in the 6-9 range.  Once you get past that point, teams will take someone with one sure-fire NBA skill and hope they can grow other parts of a players game.  But at 6-9 the tendency is to take upside guys who have higher ceilings.  But, they also have lower floors than the guys taken in the top 5.  You have to be right if you are taking the gamble.  

One thing about Ament...I wonder if Risacher isn't going through the same "ugly" that you'd expect Ament to go through his first two years.  Which of them projects to be better?  Would we rather have Gafford/Ament (if that is what Masai decides to do) or Morez/Risacher (especially if the latter means moving from #30 to #23)?  The world has seen Risacher score 30 points in an NBA game (4 times).  We have a much better idea what is possible with him than we do with Ament.

I think the difference in this draft is the 5 guards are closer to 4-5 guys in other drafts.  Most of them have stronger floors than your typical 6-9 pick.  Ament is a classic 6-9 pick in a typical draft with the bust potential to go with it.  My issue with going after the high ceiling guys is that I have watched high floor guys end up with a bigger ceiling than realized, and I have seen too many high ceiling guys bust.

Its interesting that one of the most common comps I read for Ament is Risacher.  Risacher had a very similar NBA rookie season to Ament's college freshman season.  He didn't improve in his second season so folks are ready to give up on him.  There is a reason I would be more than happy to trade Gafford (who I think value is late first at best) for Risacher, but have no interest in spending #9 on Ament.