(06-15-2026, 09:51 PM)mvossman Wrote: The reason to trade him this offseason would be because you get a good offer that might not be there at the TDL. Sometimes its easier for teams to trade for a big salary during the offseason than at the TDL. He might have more value because you get him for the full year. There is risk that he is not the same player he was two years ago before the injury and there is risk that he gets another big injury and tanks his value (see AD). After this coming season, he has a team option. He could opt out and bail and they lose him for nothing, or he could opt in and have one last year on his contract to trade, or he could opt out and they S&T him. Given the contract situation and the fact that he will be a year older, its hard to think his value will be higher at the end of the season.
His peak value is probably at the TDL, but there is an argument to pull the trigger now if you get a good enough offer. There is probably some truth to your last paragraph, especially if he wants out. But I'm not sure Kyrie wanting to stay means he is going to stay. Masai has history of trading established big name players like Carmelo (although he wanted out), Rudy Gay and DeRozen (who had just finished 8th in MVP voting). So far they have been very thorough in communicating they have no interest in trading Kyrie, but apparently Masai told DeRozen he was not going to trade him just days before he traded him, so I'm not sure how serious to read the comments/rumors.
Melo is a reasonable comp for a possible Kyrie trade this summer, a trade of a star when M became a GM. But as you mentioned, that one happened because Melo was trying to force his way out - he was chasing a chance to play in NY - so M made the best deal and moved forward to build a team. If Kyrie starts making waves that he wants out, sure I think he gets traded; but if not, I don't see it happening.
You mentioned Derozan, but that is not a realistic comp for what M might do in THIS type of situation at all. That's just a GM in a place he has been for quite some time making a trade of a good player to get a better one (which is what it takes sometimes), and he was offered a player who could take them to a title, if he will let go of DeRozan. So of course he did. Fast forward a half dozen years, and if he has a bunch of Robins (some of them fairly raw) needing a Batman, the DR deal is our comp for what he might do in THAT situation.
Rudy Gay was traded because he (with a big contract, and a ball stopper) didn't fit what TOR was building. That was their AD-to-Washington trade, basically -- a deal that freed up minutes, shots, and future payroll. They actually got MUCH better that same season, just by getting him out of the rotation.