2026 NBA draft thread

[mvossman]

I tried to keep my comments broad and include myself.  Sorry if I didn't fully accomplish that.

We probably need some agreement on terms.  I rank a "plus starter" as higher than a "quality starter".  When Vecenie says Burries will probably be a "quality starter" does he meet your definition?  If not, then he really belongs in the tier with some of the trade-down guys (BTW, I like Burries and won't be upset if that is who we get).  

I worry about Flemings' length and are we sure he is a "shooter" any more than others in the trade down range?  BTW, I like Flemings and won't be upset if that is who we get, but I see his star upside as limited.  

Brown has a sweet stroke that didn't translate into efficiency.  Vecenie notes that he throws some wild passes.  In much the same way that I think Ament will be a 38% or better shooter from three, people on the Brown train assume he can curb some of his base instincts.  I think the evidence is good for Brown from some of his body of work prior to college, but we don't know.  Sometimes these guys are just who they are (BTW, I like Brown and won't be upset if that is who we end up with).

I do find comfort in having the decision makers we have in place, but I'm well aware that today's hero's can easily become tomorrow's goats.  So, we can't put too much into Masai and Schmitz (but, I really like Schmitz).  I think there is a really good chance this new braintrust goes for a little more length than some of these guards.  My interest in trading down goes way up if they believe they can get that length in someone they see making it to 12 or 14.

I would say the line between quality starter and plus starter is fairly blurred.  I would say the goal is plus starter, the tolerable is quality starter and anything below that is a complete miss.  I think the guys past 9 have a significantly higher miss chance than Burries.

Flemings is a legit PG which separates him from most of the guys behind him, and his elite athleticism helps to make up for his length (also he was the only plus defender in college of all the pure PGs near his range). As for his shooting, I take some solace that he was a plus catch and shoot 3 point shooter and only struggled with self created 3s. He had the ball in his hands so much he did not have much opportunity for C&S so that somewhat makes up for volume. It also helps that he was an elite FT shooter.

When projecting 3 point percentage in NBA the historically best traits to look at from college are 3 point volume and free throw percentage.  Based on those metrics, Brown projects to be one of the best 3 point shooters in this class and Ament projects to be middling.  I realize there is more to it than that and there are examples of guys that buck these trends.

Don't get me wrong, I am super happy with the FO we have right now and like you I particularly like Schmitz.  I loved that interview from a couple of years ago where he said now processing speed and skills are more important than athleticism.  I just hope if these guys do have a guy around the late lottery range that they really like, they find a way to keep 9 and trade assets/players for that pick.