03-17-2026, 09:58 AM
(03-17-2026, 09:49 AM)Smitty Wrote: Yeah, but even if they finish best case scenario at the 6 spot. They're far more likely to jump in the top 4 or slide back to 7 or 8 than stay at 6. Kind of crazy that the 6th spot only has an 8.6% chance of actually picking at #6.
There's no way to know how teams stack the guards in this draft. Even this board is all over the place. Either way, I think for me the drop off is really at 9. The top-4 are pretty locked in, then the stack of Guards. That rounds out the top 8 for me. The order won't really matter if the Mavs are getting the last man standing...
As long as Brown gets picked in the top 7 (a good chance) then I agree that 9 is the bigger cutoff. I can get behind Wagler, but Brown seems like a big risk. 6th spot only has a 6% chance of picking 9 or worse, but 8th spot is nearly 40%.