03-10-2026, 09:21 PM
(03-10-2026, 03:31 PM)mvossman Wrote: What is really odd is that a team that finishes 6th is more likely to get the first pick than the 6th pick. The 5th spot is even weirder. That pick is almost guaranteed to come from a top 4 team (98%).
Not that weird really. To stay in 5th for the 5th placed team, means that one of the top four teams has to win the top pick (54.5%), then from the remaining three teams one has to win the 2nd pick (~39%), then from the remaining two teams one of them has to win the third pick (~24.6%), then the remaining team has to win the 4th pick (~11.5%). If not all of these happen, the 5th team moves down.