03-05-2026, 04:28 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-05-2026, 04:51 PM by Scott41theMavs.)
(03-05-2026, 02:53 PM)Smitty Wrote: @GoodmanHoops
UPDATED MOCK DRAFT:
After talking to nearly a dozen NBA execs, here’s a mock first-round board.
Many NBA execs are torn right now on the No. 1 pick.
Acuff belongs in the top 8, not Ament. So many prospects that fit Ament's profile have amounted to nothing in the league.
But put Acuff at #8, and there's a far more precipitous drop between 8 and 9 than there is between 3 and 4 or 4 and 5. Mavs need to secure the #6 "tank seed" to make sure the probability of landing 9 or lower is as unlikely as... winning the lottery was last year.
Edit: just looked at the tankathon.com pick odds. If the Mavs stay at 7, they have a 13.2% of finishing 9th or lower. I am serious, I view getting the 9th pick or lower as very close to just as disastrous as being a Pacer fan and ending up with the 5th or 6th pick. Losing out on the top 8 bonanza is like losing the pick - unless some sucker makes a really stupid reach (like Ament). If Dallas falls/climbs to 6th, they only have a 3.8% chance at 9th or lower. Tank, tank, tank. Lose all of the rest of the games if necessary.
As for the Pacers, they have a 47.8% chance of ceding their pick to the Clipps even if they finish 2nd tank seed. If they catch the Kings, those odds actually increase by a tenth of a percent. Didn't realize it was statistically better to finish 2nd than 1st.

