AROUND the NBA:

[Winter]

I agree with almost all of this, but I think there is more upside to pick 30.  This is a very deep draft and if you look at the last three times the Mavs had a pick in this area, in 2022 they traded it away for Christian Wood but Peyton Watson was at 30 and Ryan Nembhard was at 31.  In 2020 they just missed Desmond Bane at 31 and in 2018 they drafted Brunson at 33.  I'm not counting on Mavs hitting on that pick, but it could definitely be better than a backup something.

I'm not sure about "way more upside to pick 30." That's a little too optimistic for most drafts I think. I can't say this one will be any different yet. Maybe it is though.

I went back to the 2000 draft, and I found 5-6 names that were recognizable. There were probably a few that were rotation players that I didn't recognize that might have had "successful" careers for awhile. I'm guessing that it's something like 1 in 4 will stick - mostly in the back end of the rotation.

Interestingly though there were a few good names besides Bane. Jimmy Butler, Kevon Looney, and Josh Hart were all drafted number 30. But even guys like Payton Watson are rare. The best epic fail was a guy named "Festus" who was drafted in 2012. 

I've said this before, they need some real creative thinking with trades, trade exceptions, or something to manufacture more picks. The FO just has to work the phones. This year especially.