TRADE: Davis, Hardy, DLO, Exum to WAS | Middleton, filler, 2 FRPs, 3 SRPs to DAL

[mvossman]

One interesting thing to note if you're into advanced stats. They are NOT KIND to Bagley and point to him being a very good (near All-Star level) individual performer who is a very very bad team player. Bagley is a classic example of why certain older metrics went out of style.

Bagley’s PER this year is 20.6 which is what you’d expect from a HIGH END starter. But his EPM is -2.1 which suggests a bad bench player. DARKO and LEBRON tell a similar story. His teams consistently perform better when he’s on the bench.

The problem with PER is it’s an old school metric that’s heavily weighted toward volume. Because Bagley is a fluid athlete who can jump twice before others jump once, he gathers points and rebounds quickly. But PER doesn't care if you missed a defensive rotation or if the offense stalled because you didn't pass. It only cares that you ended the possession with a bucket or a board.

Modern metrics look at how the team performs when a player is on the court versus off. This is where Bagley’s "picture" changes:

LEBRON and EPM are particularly harsh on Bagley because of his "defensive feel." He often has high block/steal totals (which help PER), but his teams consistently defend better when he is on the bench. Modern metrics see that the team gives up more points at the rim when he's playing.

While Bagley scores, he isn't a "connector." He has low assist rates and doesn't floor-space effectively. DARKO and EPM track how his presence affects his teammates' shooting percentages; typically, teammates' efficiency drops when he is clogging the lane.

These metrics identify that while Bagley gets his stats, those stats don't lead to a higher net point differential for his team.

I was pretty high on Bagley before looking into this so we'll just have to see how he looks in a Mavs uniform. But be wary, it may turn out that he fills the box score and passes the eye test but the team performs worse when he's on the floor. Good for the tank I guess.

I guess I'm not sure what you are looking at?  Is this for his career?  Just looking at this season his EPM is positive and his defensive is zero, which is quite good for a vet min player.  He has one of the better net ratings on the Wiz and middle of the pack on defense.  I'm not expecting a ton from him, but at least his recent advanced stats look fine.