02-07-2026, 01:04 AM
(02-06-2026, 10:06 PM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: Keep in mind that 1) while Utah are always crafty tankers, we're not that far behind them; 2) the Pels have no motivation to tank (even if their performance thus far indicates that someone in the Hawks' organization has blackmail photos) and could go on a tear; and 3) Washington has been playing better lately.
I don't think we have much of a chance to catch Brooklyn, Indiana, or the Kings.
I think my guess of 7 total remaining wins was a good metric, even though it's lower than .300 and would give the optic of intentional tanking. One of the other teams should catch us if we play that poorly (or tank that adeptly).
Thank you for the comments. Some notes on them ....
1 UT is very unlikely to move up to lottery seed 7 or 8, and is more likely to rabidly pursue 4-5. That's because they lose their pick if it turns out to be 9 or higher. (It's been traded to OKC but it has protection on picks 1-8). And here's the key - if the protection kicks in (ie if the pick is 1-8), not only do they keep it, but OKC gets nothing at all. SOOOOO - I'm am convinced UT will do whatever it takes to protect that pick.
2 The same is true of WAS (they keep pick 1-8) although WAS will then pay 2 2nds instead, but it's a big enough swing where I think they are committed to tanking hard as well.
3 Yes, NOP has no incentive to lose, because they have no pick no matter what, but they have sucked all year, so it's hard to assume they will somehow start winning. They are just bad.
Combine those with BKN, IND, SAC and that makes 6 teams the Mavs won't catch. UT is the closest, but also has the most incentive to lose every game. NO is the only one not tanking, but they may not be good enough to actually win enough, and they are quite a ways under the Mavs in the W column.
That's why I think DAL is going to land in 7-8 and there's not a lot they can do about it. I think MEM will be their competition, and maybe MIL too, for slots 7-9.