(02-06-2026, 03:27 PM)mvossman Wrote: The 10th spot has a 14% chance to land top 4 and the 7th spot has a 32% Chance. You more than double your odds by landing 7th. Considering how valuable it would be to get a top 4 pick, I think an extra almost 20% chance is worth a lot. I don't know what the Mavs mindset is going to be, but there is a lot of value in continuing to lose right now.[AND TO SCOTT ALSO]
Let's be real - the Mavs from here WILL continue to lose, no matter what they do. It's not like they can flip a switch and suddenly win all the time - they aren't even a .500-caliber team. And once you mix in injuries and "injuries" as needed, the potential for winning regularly is even lower, even though playing hard and trying. They have 31 to play, and if you watch the standings, winning 3 of 10 is typically worse than what is typical even at the bottom, so that means we might see 9-10 wins from here and still go nowhere. I'm not going to obsess over those 9-10. But I won't be highly bummed when they lose, either. I'm mostly interested in how they can find some keepers to build with, maybe, and make their guys better.
I think they are likely to land at 7-8, and will win some games along the way to landing there. A few they may win by some lucky breaks, but at certain points they will be desperate for a win (and may or may NOT figure out how to get it, because they are not that good). But I promise you that what each team in the tank does has a ripple effect too. When a team's place in the tank gets threatened, they suddenly lose every game. If a team has latitude to win without messing up their tank setting, they may win. Later when it's tighter, they may lose 5 in a row. But that game or two you won earlier, had you lost it, it would NOT have made a true diff -- the other teams would have backed up accordingly, as needed. And the difference between picking 7 or 8 or 9 depends entirely on your team's ability to scout and project superbly. That's where the real focus should be imo.