02-06-2026, 01:37 PM
(02-06-2026, 01:06 AM)SleepingHero Wrote: Its riskier for them to do that, because if any of the 5-14 teams move up, they move down. In fact, its more likely they lose the pick if they go for a top 1-4 (52%) vs. going for 10.
10 is guaranteed safe (100%) with small upside (14% at top 4). vs. if they tank for 1-4, they have a 52% chance at keeping the pick at all.
Obviously this is really simple math and in actuality the percentages are a little bit different. But the sentiment is the same. They should flat out try and win games now and give up the unprotected pick in 2031. Mostly because if they keep this lotto pick, they have a very good core still with Hali+Siakam+Lotto pick+Nembhard+Zubac. That unprotected pick may be in the mid teens at the worst.
I don't think Indy can get to slot 10, even if they want to. Slot 7 or 8 is probably workable, and maybe even 9, but not 10.
They are 13-38 and tied for 2nd fewest wins. They have 31 games left. The teams in that range are going to continue to win SOME games, so Indy would be trying to catch what is far ahead and still going. Right now teams in the 10-11-12 range are playing at a .450 pace, which will land them at about 37 wins and perhaps a play-in spot.
To get to 37 by the end of the season, Indy would have to go about 24-7 from here. I don't think they can do that even if they wanted to. That is a BETTER winning pace than any NBA team this season, even OKC and DET.
To get to slot 8-9 they would have to win 33. That has them going 20-11 from here which is the same level as BOS or NY has played. I don't think they can be that good either.
Now what?
If it was me, I'm still tanking, and doing it even harder than before. There are no guarantees, but the odds of landing a top 4 pick are way better if I start around 1 or 2 than if I start in the 6-7-8 range.