TRADE: Tyus Jones to DAL | Branham to CHA

[DanSchwartzgan]

It will be interesting to see which of these they prioritize. Do they simply let the 2-ways of Nemby and Cisse run their wourse, or do they convert one or both to the reguar roster?

In the last 6 weeks of the season, they will only have 4 of these on the roster. Which 4?
Nemby (eligibility ends before Mar 1)
Cisse (eligibility ends around Mar 1)
Middleton (full Bird rights)
Bagley (non-Bird 140% signing rights)
Jones (non-Bird 140% signing rights)
Johnson (the only of these players under contract next season, with a TO for another year beyond that)

They also have two players with ending contracts they could re-sign in the summer after contract runs out (if not waived)
Powell (full Bird rights)
Williams (early Bird rights)

If you are playing GM, how do you play it? Who do you keep or waive (if anyone)?

Another important question is what is our budget?  With the 10 players under contract and two picks, I've got us about $42mm under the tax and $49mm under the first apron.  Whatever we do in 26/27 has to anticipate extensions kicking in in 27/28 for Christie, Lively and Naji.

One note before I start...we are talking about fringe NBA players here for the most part.  The team probably only has seven replacement level or above players and Lively and Irving are hurt and something is very wrong with PJ.  That leaves Flagg, Naji and Christie and Gafford.  With the possible exception of Bagley, none of these other guys are top nine rotation guys, so the decisions the team makes on them are not life altering in any way.  Still, what else are we going to discuss.  

Bigs:  Any team that has Lively on it will need a good third center (and maybe someone like Cisse occupying one of the two-way spots).  So, I'd love to see Bagley have some success and potentially keep him in that third center spot behind Lively and Gafford.  I'd also like a center project in the two-way slot.  I'm fine with it being Cisse, but I'm fine going a different direction also.  I don't see the need to sign him to a standard contract now.  He's been useful and he's fun and I like him, but he's no more valuable than the other guys we've cycled through here lately (BTW, kudo's to whichever co-GM has been in charge of two-ways the last two years).

PG:  I think Jones makes sense as the backup PG behind Kyrie next season.  His history shows he can be an above replacement level player...he just hasn't been that this season.  That is more upside than I project for either Williams or Nembhard.  Having Jones next season also allows the team to use its top pick on BPA.  So, keeping him this summer depends on the pick and whether you are paying him to be your second string or third string PG.

I don't see either Williams or Nembhard as more than third stringers on good teams.  I probably give Nembhard the edge based on his 3 point shot.  Since I don't see Nembhard as special, I don't see the need to cut someone to sign him to a standard contract now.  If you get a PG in the draft and keep Jones, you don't really need Williams or Nembhard as backups.  If you draft a different position or don't keep Jones, you might need one to be your third stringer.  I don't want to go into next season with one of these guys as the primary backup behind Kyrie.  

AJ Johnson kind of muddies the third PG conversation.  Is that his role?  Or, is he the third string SG.  I give Johnson at least another year and see if he can be developed.  The athleticism is there, but does he have the heart and head for the work that is required.  Two teams have given up on him already, so it isn't looking good.  But, he jumps off the screen when he's good.  Unless he's a total nut job (or has no sense of how to play team ball), I'd prioritize him over Williams or Nembhard.  Obviously difficult to say having not seen him in a game environment.  But, I see more upside there than with the other two.  Plus, he's under contract anyway...so why not.  

Middleton:  For cultural reasons, I hang onto Middleton the rest of the season.  Like Naji, you can run some offense through him, which mitigates the need for playing Nembhard.  But, if you keep both picks and Bagley and Jones and Nembhard (potentially), you are out of roster spots for 26/27.  If you draft a PG and keep one of Jones/Nembhard, then you can keep Middleton and still add someone else.  There are too many what-ifs to game plan this out.  I can see paying Middleton to stay another year.  He and Klay would then both expire and you'd have the space to extend Lively, Max and Naji.  I can also see moving on from him so you can spend the MLE (or use the TPE to bring in a S&T free agent).  

The forward position was already crowded without Middleton.  So, it won't hurt my heart if they buy him out.  But as others have noted, he's a good culture guy and having more veteran leadership that helps keep the locker room positive through the rest of the season is a good thing.  I'd rather use the MLE (or better, the TPE for a S&T) in the summer to add another real NBA player to the mix.  But, if you can structure his contract so that he and Klay are expiring trade chips, I'd be OK with keeping him too.  That might mean stashing the OKC pick overseas depending on what happens at the PG spot.  Again, too much uncertainty to game plan this out.  

We need one more starter from somewhere.  Right now that doesn't project to come from the draft.  It looks like a PG project behind Kyrie is the most likely outcome there.  So, my efforts this summer are much more about a SF who fits between Flagg and Christie much more than it is the end-of-bench guys.  If you can do that and draft well and Lively is healthy, you start to make sense and you have enough excess to put players into a trade and still have a solid bench.

Lively      Gafford     Bagley
Flagg       PJ            Middleton or Pick
Starter     Naji         Martin
Christie    Klay         Johnson
Kyrie        Pick         Jones or Nembhard