(01-25-2026, 05:02 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: Well, it's a good and key question, I agree.
I'll push back pretty significantly on the distinction you make above. One of the things I feel I've learned during my NBA fandom (and all of sports fandom, really) is that while it's tempting to make determinations like this, they are frequently counterproductive and inaccurate, despite what seems like common sense, careful analysis, historical, fact-based tracking, etc. The reality is that if your team is of a quality to reach the 2nd round, they ARE a contender. Period. It might SEEM like there are only 2-3 teams with a chance to win each season, and the "smart money" might be to assume one of them will, especially when you're as close to the day-to-day goings on around the sport as fans like us, but the reality of sports is that crazy things happen. None of us here believed the 2011 Mavs were a "contender." Literally, none of us. Many still didn't like the team's chances after they swept the Lakers, even.
I'm not as confident as you that the 2nd round is a possibility for this team next year with this ill-fitting roster and this coaching staff. But if I were, I'd contently call that team a contender, personally. Reaching the 2nd round of the playoffs is a hell of a good season, and much, much more enjoyable than the one we're witnessing now.
There are like 15 or 20 teams that could win a playoff round this season. Do you consider all of them contenders?
That Mavs team won 57 games and came in second in the West. We didn't think they could win because we watched them fail so badly in prior playoff runs, but that was not a team I would have said second round max (I feared it though. I still remember watching them blow that big lead against Portland).
I think if they run this team back it will be good (when healthy) but not great. I don't think they have the ceiling to get to the finals and I don't think there is any chance they could stay healthy for a long playoff run regardless.