Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[mvossman]

We've talked a lot about "sunk cost" relative to the Luka trade and what might motivate the team to expect a lot (too much?) out of moving AD...

I think the real, over-arching issue is "sunk cost" relative to the team having so recently been in the NBA finals. People on different ends of the AD trade spectrum are talking about the merits of their position on that specific issue, but really where they are opposed, imho, is about whether or not this team has any chance of being good next season. It's what we're not talking about enough, I think.

If you think guys like AD, PJW, Thompson, Kyrie, Marshall, etc, have a chance of still being here when the team is competitive, then I think you don't move them unless you get GOOD offers. If you don't, then you kind of owe it to yourself (in the Mavs' shoes) to admit that to yourself and get whatever you can for any/all of them. I think some of the incredulous disbelief I'm reading that others don't agree with the valuation of some of these trade proposals really boils down to an assumption that we're all seeing this team's near future prospects on the court the same way, and I don't think that's true.

Further, I don't think it's as obvious which way that will go as most who are ardent in their outlooks probably believe. Those who assume this team is just a reshuffle and improved health away from competitive play might be correct, but some of them seemed pretty convinced this year's team would be good, and we all see how that's worked out. Those who think it's a forgone conclusion that the team must start completely over from scratch (they're not stating it in those terms, but I believe they feel that way without admitting it, even to themselves in some cases) might be surprised at just how good this team can be super quickly, given how fast Flagg is improving, provided the talent is shuffled in a way that offers more synergy around him (and with improved health).

I'm honestly not sure which way to lean, myself, but for the Mavs, it occurs to me that making that determination..which direction do we go? That's the first domino that needs to fall, and we haven't talked about it as much as I think we should.

I think a real important part of this is defining what competitive means.  Does it mean contention?  Or does it mean when healthy they could get to the second round of the playoffs?  I think they will be competitive in the second sense, but not in the first.  

As for somebody who thinks they need to reset, I wouldn't say its starting over completely from scratch.  I think Flagg/Max/Lively is a good core to start with.  But most of the rest of the guys will be gone.  The finals team was almost a complete overhaul from two years prior.