01-25-2026, 04:16 PM
(01-25-2026, 03:50 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: We've talked a lot about "sunk cost" relative to the Luka trade and what might motivate the team to expect a lot (too much?) out of moving AD...
I think the real, over-arching issue is "sunk cost" relative to the team having so recently been in the NBA finals. People on different ends of the AD trade spectrum are talking about the merits of their position on that specific issue, but really where they are opposed, imho, is about whether or not this team has any chance of being good next season. It's what we're not talking about enough, I think.
If you think guys like AD, PJW, Thompson, Kyrie, Marshall, etc, have a chance of still being here when the team is competitive, then I think you don't move them unless you get GOOD offers. If you don't, then you kind of owe it to yourself (in the Mavs' shoes) to admit that to yourself and get whatever you can for any/all of them. I think some of the incredulous disbelief I'm reading that others don't agree with the valuation of some of these trade proposals really boils down to an assumption that we're all seeing this team's near future prospects on the court the same way, and I don't think that's true.
Further, I don't think it's as obvious which way that will go as most who are ardent in their outlooks probably believe. Those who assume this team is just a reshuffle and improved health away from competitive play might be correct, but some of them seemed pretty convinced this year's team would be good, and we all see how that's worked out. Those who think it's a forgone conclusion that the team must start completely over from scratch (they're not stating it in those terms, but I believe they feel that way without admitting it, even to themselves in some cases) might be surprised at just how good this team can be super quickly, given how fast Flagg is improving, provided the talent is shuffled in a way that offers more synergy around him (and with improved health).
I'm honestly not sure which way to lean, myself, but for the Mavs, it occurs to me that making that determination..which direction do we go? That's the first domino that needs to fall, and we haven't talked about it as much as I think we should.
To some extent the AD injury has pushed this decision out. Guys like Gaff/Klay/Marshall are good players, but I don't think they're irreplaceable if the Mavs want to move one or two of them at the deadline and still try to contend next year. Bringing back Kyrie and AD while adding a high draft pick could more than make up for their loss.
But if I had to make the call now, I lean more towards starting over from scratch. As good as Flagg has been I still think he needs 3-4 years to have a shot at growing into a #1 on a contender type of player. After he put up 23/6/5 on nearly 60% TS in December I thought he might be ready sooner. However, so far in January he's down to 17/6/5 on 50% TS. Luka spoiled us by ascending to All-NBA 1st team in his 2nd season like it was no big deal. I don't think we should get our hopes up by expecting the same from Flagg.