Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
Part of the disconnect is because so many come at it from what I think is the wrong perspective. They are trying to define what they think other teams can, or will, offer the Mavs for AD these days. But his "value" can only be defined by an actual trade (what a buyer will pay, and the seller will sell for) and theorizing what teams might prefer to offer is really short of answering the question of what a trade would look like if it happens, because it completely ignores the question of what it would take for the Mavs to say yes.

It is in THAT context - what I think it would take for the Mavs to be interested and perhaps say yes - that I have been addressing the question of what is needed for an AD trade. The Mavs imo are expecting a certain amount of TALENT in return, to let go of AD, which can come via pick(s) or very good players, and I think most of the offers here fall well short of that. You (and others) don't like my pov, but let's see if he gets sold for a lot less. I don't think it will happen.

It isn't that people don't like your POV.  People here would love your stance to be predictive.  We (I) just don't think that's realistic.  

Let's set aside the "they can always wait" part of this.  That is always the most likely outcome as we hear 50 rumors for every trade that actually happens.  I will stipulate that the lack of a trade can certainly be characterized as "the offers fell short".  But, it can just as easily be characterized as "no one wants him".  I've seen two national writers espouse that theory warning that no one should pursue AD given his health history and likely future contract expectations.  The first version...the offers fell short...paints waiting as some righteous stance.  But, waiting doesn't necessarily create value nor does it define what posture was more realistic.  

I also think defining those who have a different perspective as "trying to define what other teams can/will offer for AD" is way too narrow.  Yes, there are people who are trying to take the other side of the deal and project what a team might be willing to pay.  There are also people who are trying to be predictive hoping to nail the exact balance that is likely to happen.  There are people who are trying to take published rumors and make sense of them.  There are people who are trying to be creative and concoct their own inventions (in hopes that they might somehow nail the outcome).  None of these inherently misjudge value.  Neither are they inherently less realistic than your "demand" for the NOP 2026 and Risacher and expiring contracts.  That might be the opening offer, but from everything I read, it stands almost zero chance of being predictive.

I do see value in trying to define an opening offer.  It creates one bookend of what might be possible.  But, the insistence that it is reality and Dallas should walk for anything less creates two dynamics that I'd like to point out.  1.  The assertion of better things to come later can't currently be proven (or successfully challenged).  But, I bet we will all try.  2.  These extreme positions (I now lump in the call for the OKC GM to be hired) set you up to call anything that actually does happen a failure.  You defined value as the result of an "actual trade".  I'm happy to live with that, but I fear that definition of value will be forgotten and the actual result will become another thing to beat the franchise up over since it didn't meet the expectations of those who held the position.  It can't be value and yet another failure.  The failure occurred 12 months ago.