FGump numbers are correct. Lakers will have significant cap space with all their expirings gone. They will also have 3 FRP (2026, 2031 and 2033) to trade in the summer and all picks could have value, because the 2031 and 2033 could go in years where Luka might not be there anymore or start to decline.
Lakers problem this season is LeBron. Not because he is a bad player, but because as he simply doesn't fit next to Luka and Reaves. Of course we could say same thing for Reaves and Luka, but LeBron is not the future of the team, Luka and Reaves are. He is the odd man out after this season. Even if they resign him for vet min it would not help, as they would still be obliged to start him and lineups would not work again. Luka and Reaves lineups are great (+7.3 net rating). Luka-LeBron-Reaves lineups are a disaster (-9.8 net rating) and even just Luka-LeBron lineups don't work (-5.4 net rating). So if he is out, lineups even with the limited talent they have start making sense. LeBron is still a very good player (not max level good anymore) and he can still be a great player on a right team. Lakers with Luka and Reaves are not it and will not be it, no matter what other players one would put around them. It is not just the defense that is a problem. If all three are playing, they take around 60 shots per game out of 80 available - it is simply not enough left for other players to feel included.
This season is really tough. While it was always clear they are not a top contender, they started the season really well (LeBron not playing) which raised expectations. Now they hit a slump which is more than anything a consequence of ill fitting pieces. So now after every game it is just about pointing fingers and blaiming. One game Luka is the reason, next one is LeBron, than Ayton is the problem, than whole supporting cast sucks and so on. Tough mental situation to be in.
Lakers will have almost 50 mil to play with without LeBron and taking into account Reaves cap hold. Assuming Ayton and Smart take their options and Lakers don't trade Knecht or Vando for expiring at TDL. I kind of think Knecht will be gone at this TDL, as that unsuccessful trade really broke him - he is just awful afterwards and he needs a change of scenery. Other than that I don't think Lakers will find a great deal at TDL and will mostly stand pat, saving flexibility and assets for the summer.
The big decision will be related to Rui - is he a long term piece moving forward or not? I kind of think he could be, as he is really excellent shooter and not that bad defensively. But, they could also find another way to go and trade him this TDL (he is the only valuable expiring contract they have). I operate under assumption he stays. If I assume he will get roughly similar deal he has now, Lakers will still have 30 mil of cap space to play with. That is a great number to target one or two free agents or trade for players under contracts into cap space. I think if Lakers add one good wing (think PJ level quality), they could become very dangerous. Someone who is an elite defender and not a zero on offense. Add another player in the cap space exception.
Things could complicate if Lakers decide to move on from Ayton. He has a really bad stretch lately and there were several games in a row where Reddick prefered to finish games with Hayes. Finding both a very good center and a two-way good wing will be difficult. Possible targets for the summer if Lakers go by free agents:
- Wiggins has a player option and Lakers could incentivise him to decline it and sign with them
- if they decide to part ways with Hachimura, Eason could be a great target as Houston will have problems paying him if numbers go over 20 mil per
- OKC might decide to decline team option on Dort
- perhaps Grimes could convince decision makers he is the solution, although I think he is too weak defensively (they really need a player that takes pride playing defense)
- Ellis and Thybulle could be buy-low options
If Lakers rather decide to target trades, they will have the ammo (picks) for the likes of Herb Jones and similar players, whoever becomes available.
Final remark - I agree Rich Paul is a very unnecesary distraction. If anyone, LeBron should be the one moving to the bench and accept even more reduced role. Another reason I really hope Lakers part ways with LeBron in the summer.
Lakers problem this season is LeBron. Not because he is a bad player, but because as he simply doesn't fit next to Luka and Reaves. Of course we could say same thing for Reaves and Luka, but LeBron is not the future of the team, Luka and Reaves are. He is the odd man out after this season. Even if they resign him for vet min it would not help, as they would still be obliged to start him and lineups would not work again. Luka and Reaves lineups are great (+7.3 net rating). Luka-LeBron-Reaves lineups are a disaster (-9.8 net rating) and even just Luka-LeBron lineups don't work (-5.4 net rating). So if he is out, lineups even with the limited talent they have start making sense. LeBron is still a very good player (not max level good anymore) and he can still be a great player on a right team. Lakers with Luka and Reaves are not it and will not be it, no matter what other players one would put around them. It is not just the defense that is a problem. If all three are playing, they take around 60 shots per game out of 80 available - it is simply not enough left for other players to feel included.
This season is really tough. While it was always clear they are not a top contender, they started the season really well (LeBron not playing) which raised expectations. Now they hit a slump which is more than anything a consequence of ill fitting pieces. So now after every game it is just about pointing fingers and blaiming. One game Luka is the reason, next one is LeBron, than Ayton is the problem, than whole supporting cast sucks and so on. Tough mental situation to be in.
Lakers will have almost 50 mil to play with without LeBron and taking into account Reaves cap hold. Assuming Ayton and Smart take their options and Lakers don't trade Knecht or Vando for expiring at TDL. I kind of think Knecht will be gone at this TDL, as that unsuccessful trade really broke him - he is just awful afterwards and he needs a change of scenery. Other than that I don't think Lakers will find a great deal at TDL and will mostly stand pat, saving flexibility and assets for the summer.
The big decision will be related to Rui - is he a long term piece moving forward or not? I kind of think he could be, as he is really excellent shooter and not that bad defensively. But, they could also find another way to go and trade him this TDL (he is the only valuable expiring contract they have). I operate under assumption he stays. If I assume he will get roughly similar deal he has now, Lakers will still have 30 mil of cap space to play with. That is a great number to target one or two free agents or trade for players under contracts into cap space. I think if Lakers add one good wing (think PJ level quality), they could become very dangerous. Someone who is an elite defender and not a zero on offense. Add another player in the cap space exception.
Things could complicate if Lakers decide to move on from Ayton. He has a really bad stretch lately and there were several games in a row where Reddick prefered to finish games with Hayes. Finding both a very good center and a two-way good wing will be difficult. Possible targets for the summer if Lakers go by free agents:
- Wiggins has a player option and Lakers could incentivise him to decline it and sign with them
- if they decide to part ways with Hachimura, Eason could be a great target as Houston will have problems paying him if numbers go over 20 mil per
- OKC might decide to decline team option on Dort
- perhaps Grimes could convince decision makers he is the solution, although I think he is too weak defensively (they really need a player that takes pride playing defense)
- Ellis and Thybulle could be buy-low options
If Lakers rather decide to target trades, they will have the ammo (picks) for the likes of Herb Jones and similar players, whoever becomes available.
Final remark - I agree Rich Paul is a very unnecesary distraction. If anyone, LeBron should be the one moving to the bench and accept even more reduced role. Another reason I really hope Lakers part ways with LeBron in the summer.