9 hours ago
(9 hours ago)RoyTarpleysGhost Wrote: Let me put it this way.
If his value last week was a young player and a 1st, what do you think his value will be this summer after this injury? (maybe matching salaries and a meh young player. maybe matching salaries and a distant 2029 1st)
If he suits up for the Mavs and gets hurt again, what do you think his value will be next trade deadline? (probably just matching salaries. no young talent or future 1sts... aka the KP or Trae Young return)
The only way he rehabs his value is if he plays the entire first half of next season without getting injured. I'd put the chances of that at about 10-20%.
Sure, I get the point. I think where I might feel differently is that other than the terrible timing of this injury (the exact day the Trae Young deal becomes official and 4 weeks before the deadline - tough to get worse than that), I'm not particularly freaked out about the nature of this specific injury, even in the worst case scenario involving surgery. That would probably slam the door on a TDL deal for sure, but it won't make him run slower or play worse when he comes back. It's just a drag for fans of a team hoping to trade him this month.
Like I said earlier, I'm deflated over it due to what I believe to be the loss of Risacher, specifically. None of the other rumored packages interested me more than the hope that AD could just play well here next year and for it to matter, honestly, regardless of how unlikely that hope was to be realized. If I didn't like Risacher as a fit next to Flagg so much, and I gather that most don't, I'm not sure I'd feel like much had changed this week.
We ALL agree that the situation is a huge drag, I'm pretty sure. I'm just trying to wrap my head around the best way forward. If that ends up being a salary dump (I'm not saying it will, but IF) then I'd just as soon get it over with, frankly. We spend a lot of time around here talking about the need for a GM to be expert in the art of negotiation, and that's definitely a need, but I'd argue the most important thing needed to run a successful sports team is the ability to identify these pivotal predictive forks in the road and choose the right path.
For me right now, the best way forward is still to treat AD like he's AD, for a variety of reasons, but I'm starting to wonder if that will end up being a mistake in hindsight when we look back on this in a couple of years.