Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[F Gump]

I think AD has a good chance of landing in ATL.

I wouldn't expect the Mavs to move AD unless the return includes a player who has a high likelihood of being a top talent. So far it's all just scraps and junk and randos that are being mentioned. But of course. No one offers great value up front.

I expect that if ATL truly wants him (and I am guessing they want him badly) they will include the NO pick (and without junking it up with conditions). "No way -- except ...." (negotiations).

I think ATL has way more urgency than DAL. (Right now they have KP's expiring, they have Trae's perhaps-expiring, and they probably don't want to have to deal with extensions for either.) ATL really needs AD badly. OTOH the Mavs don't have an expert negotiator yet and they are better off to wait. But if they get overwhelmed with value being offered? What if the offer included NO pick, plus another #1 unprotected, plus Risacher + filler? At some point you can't say no. Can you?

I think AD's contract and the opportunity to extend -- ie, a chance to have him for more than a year or two -- would be seen as a plus, not a minus, on a team that sees him as the missing piece to advance to the next level. They want to buy an era of contending, not a year.

I believe the Mavs really don't value Trae. But could they stomach him for a while? "No way -- except ...." (negotiations). (And, on a different level, is Trae undesirable at 50M salary, but could he become valued at 20-30M?)

I think Risacher has a high likelihood of being junk (and at a VERY bloated salary, in relation to what he brings). Yes he could be a "fan-pleasing name" -- hey look, it's a recent #1 pick, they got someone great for AD!!!!!! - that serves as part of the trade-match but imo he's not looking like he can be any real value. "No way -- except ...." (negotiations).

I think much of what we are hearing is posturing. ATL won't get AD for cheap. So they will have to walk away (except, no way they want to REALLY walk away). "No way -- except ...." (negotiations).

The math in the deal is tricky because ATL has to match a big salary, but the Mavs can't take back extra bodies (unless they are willing to lose Nembhard). So ATL is likely to have to take some extras (Hardy, Powell, Martin). But then how can ATL match an ever-growing number? "No way -- except ...." (negotiations).