12-13-2025, 02:36 PM
(12-13-2025, 01:43 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: I have been thinking about this as long as everyone else. The range of desirable results and stakes are pretty clear. I just can't get past the idea that getting bottom-5 odds might require too much "trying," as in decimating the team too much to make sense, and might not even be possible, end of day. Conversely, earning the "6 seed or above" status that would be necessary to make anyone feel good about going the other direction seems basically impossible as well.
My conclusion, right or wrong, is that this will all sort itself out, and probably near the end of the season. The NBA has gone to extreme measures to make things like last year's nabbing of Flagg possible, and those types of things seem to be happening more and more often. I don't for one second buy any harebrained conspiracy theories about that - I think it's all chance, and that's exactly what the NBA wanted. Further, they've contrived things SPECIFICALLY to encourage teams in the exact circumstances the Mavs are in now to try and right their season as long as they possibly can. End of the day, I'm not sure it's even worth being as bad as possible anymore. Imagine being Utah last summer, for example, and then imagine that's us around here after selling AD for peanuts in a desperate attempt to lose games. AD, who might be a major part of next season's success, if things break right and a few good decisions are made.
I do agree with the consensus that the 9-10 seed range should be avoided, if possible, and if it's looking like that's the best the team can do with a couple of weeks left, I suppose I'd try to finish worse, given the specific circumstances of this season. But, I see no real difference between 11-12 and worse, so I don't think extreme measures need to be taken. They've been losing plenty while trying to win, and the best way to encourage rapid growth from Flagg is to for the team to be played the right way. If it works out faster, it works out faster. They just need to let the chips fall where they may (within reason) and nail the pick, wherever the pick lands.
The one caveat I'd put on all of this, personally, and why I wish they'd just hire Lindsey already and get Finley, Ricardi and especially Cuban out of the driver's seat is this: no matter how this turns out, I don't want any "win now" trades. If they find a trade that makes the team immediately better, fine, but it better be for a YOUNG player. If they find a (good) trade that adds young assets, clears cap pathways, adds picks (whatever) and makes the team slightly worse in the very near future, that's fine, too, but it has to be a good, productive trade, and not just something done in the name of increasing the odds for this one, upcoming pick. All of that is fair game for me, just no win now 30 year olds, at least not right now. If they just avoid anything like that, I think there's an acceptably wide range of positive outcomes from here.
I expect in time AD won't be here. Whether that is the trade deadline, this offseason or a year and a half from now is uncertain. The rebuild gets substantially easier if the Mavs get a top 3 pick. There is no doubt about that. Even a 4-6 pick makes things easier. I would love to pair Cooper up with a top 3 pick. If it happened the future is so much brighter. No doubt. With that being said the Mavs could continue to suck and still pick 8th. At the moment I am not going to fret losing from picking 7th to 13-15th. I think you can still find good players. Heck OKC and Detroit found their second best players right after each other in this range.
I entered the season just wanting to enjoy basketball again. The first 20ish games were brutal and I felt like a higher power was trying to see how bad things could get before I stopped watching. Don't test me! The last 6ish games have been really fun. The Mavs got the hard part done already (we hope), by having one of those guys. He is no where close to where he will need to get to prove this true, but there is a solid chance of it happening. Sure, you need another partner to go with him (along with depth). Not having your draft picks after this year is troubling, but it is not impossible. Target smart players who know how to play. Build a deep team. Maybe you Jalen Brunson someone in the draft/FA and you find that guy that way.
Sorry...not really to your response above, but just something I have been thinking about. I also agree to not eat the cheese that this team is more than it is. Although it would sort of be a waste to throw everything away for a 20-30% chance of landing a top 3 pick. We saw how that ended for Utah and Washington. Plus, when you have guys you hope are winners you don't throw away seasons. IMO that has bad juju. if you are bad, you are bad. Otherwise, you try to win games to a certain point in the year.
Lastly, I am not even ready to have the OKC question yet on how we ever get close to them anytime soon. That is just depressing.