Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[khaled1987]

Good question. For me a contender is a team with a legit chance to win it all. In my opinion, true contenders are (of course assuming teams are healthy):
Tier 1: OKC in a league of their own. It will be an extremely hard task to beat them in any best of seven series, although some teams could give them trouble

Tier 2: 
- Houston. They are good but they need a good PG to be really good
- Denver. They have Jokic but I think they are vulnerable a lot mostly because they are injury prone and have bad defense
- Detroit. They play good defense, but could use some reinforcements on offensive side
- Cleveland. Their team should be good, if they can stay healthy. I think they are much better than their current standing
- NY. They have the pieces, at least in the starting five. Can they put them together when it matters most?

I would have LAL as perhaps borderline Tier 2. Need to see them in more games against top teams. Very match-up dependent team due to their lack of athleticism. I think Atlanta is in tier 4 as they are. I am not sure if swapping (lets say) KP and Risacher for AD puts them two tiers higher. I agree that East looks much weaker than West, but lets not forget Atlanta is currently 9th in that weak East. Getting Davis would perhaps put them in a fight with Detroit, NY and Cleveland to get out of East. Assuming they keep Trae, he would still be a constant target on defense. Close to impossible to hide him against top teams. Johnson and Davis are both injury prone, so it is a big risk that one of them misses the playoffs. If he does, they can't really survive/replace his production. 

For me a move for an injury prone guy in his thirties is a move you make if you are:
a) sure he puts you in tier 1 contenders or
b) you keep enough assets if the thing doesn't work out - don't spend top assets for him

I don't think AD fits under a).  I certainly don't believe that they would become a surefire team to win the East with AD. Based on how strong OKC is, I would be very careful and rather keep the great assets that can make you good in a couple of years. I would not bet my future against them. AD is a short term move, that gives you a very short window where a lot of things need to go right (and even that might not be enough). Mavs are a prime example of how quickly that plan can fall apart.

I agree with the definition, I don't agree with your application on it though.

Conference makes a hell of a difference if you are aiming for chip, an inferior Eastern conference team can be a contender while a Western one isn't. Once you are in the finals everything could happen. Raptors had no business being an NBA finals winners but KD went down, Pacers were supposed to be anhalitad by OKC but they were in game 7 and maybe an achilles from getting their first ring. 

The way I see it, this is closer to the 2018-09 season when Lebron left the East. This time, the best 2 teams in Pacers and Boston has their best players injured, and it is a wide open race. Knicks downgraded their coaching with a serial loser too, the rest are more of ambitious teams with many holes and no track record of winning. It is a wide open race. 

This is essentially the perfect scenario for a win now trade, and why many Eastern teams are very interested in AD, he can be the difference for going all the way to the finals.

And then, as I said, for Atlanta even a final will be like a ring, because they never made it there. It will be a historical achievement.

It is also important to remember this, Atlanta package will likely be around KP, filler and picks. They don't give much.

NO pick is their most valuable assets, however it has an expiring date, once you draft a player he isn't an asset based on where he was drafted, but depending on how good he is. And even if he is good, it will be dependent on how fast he can help you to win in this open Eastern conference.