Trade & FA 2025-26: Free Agency Starts 5pm CST/6pm EST

[DanSchwartzgan]

So dumb question...I see a lot of proposed trades involving AD going to another team for multiple players. How does a one for many work on the Mavs side since there's no roster spots?

The board is moving faster than I can keep up with, so apologies if this has been posted.  I've been wanting to do a deeper dive into the Chicago idea because it has some interesting elements that might be instructive from a cap standpoint.  I think everyone knows we can't take back more salary that we send and are fairly tight against the 2nd apron.  But, the question you ask is a good one and fairly easy to fix depending on the trade partners situation.  Chicago is well under the tax and the first apron and has 3 exceptions that might come into play in a trade.  So, let's go through some of this....

Is there a Klutch connection?

Chicago doesn't have any major Klutch players currently.  But, Klutch was involved heavily with the Bulls last season.  They worked with Chicago on the Lonzo Ball extension in February that we pointed out made him very tradeable this summer.  In fact, he was traded in July to Cleveland (where Garland is a Klutch client).  They were also heavily involved in the big deal that sent Fox (Klutch) to San Antonio and LaVine (Klutch) to Sacramento.

Why would Chicago want AD? 

They tend to go "big name hunting" from time to time and it is AD's home town.  Chicago is surprisingly 4th in the league in 3%, but 22nd in the league in attempts.  That would probably be better if White was healthy.  In the minutes with Vuc or Buzelis, AD would be playing with a good 3 point shooter.  As an aside, I find it funny that Giddy is .385 from 3 and Huerter is .315.  Vuc is 35 and is expiring this summer.  Collins is also expiring.  So, I can see the interest in Davis.

Let's talk draft picks.

I've seen people get excited that Chicago has two picks in 2026.  WE DON"T WANT 3 ROOKIES NEXT YEAR.  The Portland pick is super interesting.  It is protected (1-14) in 2026, 2027 and 2028, then becomes a 2028 2nd rounder.  The interesting thing is Portland has swap rights with Milwaukee in 2028.  But, if the Portland pick hasn't conveyed by 2028 they risk losing what could be a very valuable swap for nothing.  It is an exclusive swap that Chicago doesn't have any right to.  If Portland makes the lottery in 26 and 27, I could see a world where they remove the protection and let Chicago have something like a late lottery pick in 27 to preserve the chance to get something much better the next season from Milwaukee.  One other thing about getting the Portland pick is it doesn't prevent Chicago from trading us their 2027 pick (since they would still have their own 2026 and their 2028 pick if they traded us the Portland pick).  My hope would be for Chicago's pick next year to be unprotected.

Who is the incoming from Chicago?

No matter what you do outside of Giddy, it take 3 players to match salaries with AD.  Vucevic, Collins, Huerter, White, Dosunmu and Carter are all expiring.  So, a big part of what Dallas is getting is likely to be Cap relief (unless we are dumb enough to take back Williams).  I think it is either Vuc or Collins.  If they want to stay good (and promise AD he can play some at PF), they keep Vuc.  Collins is hurt and helps the tank.  White is also hurt.  He fits a need here now and in the future (though the D next to Kyrie won't be great).  There is nothing other than Bird rights keeping him in Chicago.  There would also be nothing keeping him here either (and he's represented by Brunson's agency if that worries anyone).  But, he's 25 and like PJ and Gafford fits that not too old but veteran enough to help Flagg win age range).  The fact that he's not tied to us lowers his value as an outgoing trade asset.  From there, you want as much salary as you can get, so expiring Huerter makes the most sense.  If the deal is White, Collins and Huerter, we've got a cap legal trade ($54.1 for $48.9) and used up $5.1mm of Chicago's $13.6mm space under the tax.

So what about Jmac's question?

Chicago has 3 TPE's they can use to take back players and relieve our roster crunch in what to this point is a 3 for 1. They have the $14.1mm MLE, a $6.2mm TPE from a prior trade and the $5.1mm BAE that can all be used as trade exceptions.  If its Collins instead of Vuc, we have $8.5mm of remaining space under the tax and $13.5mm of space under the first apron.  We have to stay under the latter.  Don't know if we have to stay out of the tax...Chicago rarely pays, but they have done it once in the last decade.  So, if tax avoidance is the thing, you put Hardy and Exum in the deal and you miss the tax by $150k (or Powell and Exum if you prefer).  If they are willing to pay some tax, you can put a bigger salary like Martin in the mix.  Putting Vuc in the deal instead of Collins also opens doors to more outgoing salary.  Bottom line, it isn't hard to construct a 3 for 3 deal (so no one has to be cut) without involving a 3rd team.

So, there's your package...an old or often injured center (Vuc or Collins), expiring and uncontrolled Coby White and Kevin Huerter plus MAYBE two picks and MAYBE one of them unprotected and a ton of cap relief (until you sign White for $25-$30mm in the summer).  You also help your tank.  If it were me, I'd hold AD out and make him go to Luka boot camp for a couple of weeks and then hope he has the greatest two week streak in NBA history.  What difference would that make?  It would (might) allow us to negotiate better picks or better protection provisions than if he looked fat and out of shape.  I think moving on is the right move as long as you don't get absolutely fleeced. But White and a couple of picks is probably as good as it gets.