08-06-2025, 10:42 AM
(08-01-2025, 07:49 AM)omahen Wrote: Since not much is going on, I made a future outlook for top teams and it might be very interesting. Looking just at potential contenders, avoiding Mavs and lakersWhen I write next season, I mean season 2026-2027.
In the East I only see four teams worth mentioning. Atlanta still needs to prove they are more than a play-in team (they have very clean books moving forward). Detroit had a nice season, but they depend a lot on further growth of their young core. It seems they still miss a significant player to become serious contenders and they will have to make decisions on Duren and Ivey. Indy took two huge hits with Hali season ending injury and Turner walking for nothing. Who knows if they can rebound from that. Milwaukee is imho done. Philly seems to be destined to be an injury mess until Embiid and George expire, rest of East is meh.
Boston
Boston shed salary this season, but they still have 180 mil committed for next season for a "core" of Tatum, Brown, White, Pritchard and Hauser (notice the big drop-off after first the big three). Biggest need is the center and another starting level player. They lost all three centers this season and brought in none, so their current center line-up is Tillman-Garza-Queta, three career third string centers, at best. Assuming they don't want to touch the "big three" and how much of the cap they take, they will have to operate near or over the second apron to be competitive. They have plenty of draft assets available so best move might be to asset whip to make a trade for a center on a rookie deal (Kessler, Duren and such). Than they could either just sign Simons to a new contract next season, trade him this season for a better (and cheaper) player or let him walk and find a wing for tax MLE.
Cleveland
They are probably in most problematic cap position, as they are already over the second apron for next season, if they keep the players they have. So a trade seems imminent in their case. Either they dump Strus to BKN or they trade Garland for a cheaper defensive minded guard (prime JRue type would be perfect for them). Or perhaps they decide to put Mobley full time on center and trade Allen without taking much salaries back.
NY
With Bridges signing an extension, they have their core locked moving forward. They have 16 mil under the 2nd apron for next season and their only heavy minutes player becoming UFA is Robinson. Yabusele could walk if he has a good season (5.7 mil player option without NY having bird rights). We will see if a new coach can push this core to the top.
Orlando
They are becoming expensive next season, as they are right at the second apron with their current contracts but they have no rotation players becoming UFA. I could see them moving one of Isaac, Carter Jr., Jett Howard (big rookie dissapointment) or Bitadze for expiring salary to give them a bit more flexibility for next offseason.
Wide circle of potential contenders in the West. I will not discuss LAC and GSW, as they are simply getting (too) old and will have to tackle the rebuild at some point. Memphis got a bit weaker and they will depend on how guys on their rookie deals develop - they have several interesting players there. Utah is rebuilding and PHX, NOP, Sac and POR are meh until they prove me wrong. SA seems to have a very bright future ahead, but I would also like to see some results first.
Denver
They have 200 mil committed for next season and they will have to resign Braun. Someone could money whip him away from Denver, as it happened in KCP and Brown cases. Orlando regretted the KCP money whipping, while Indy used overpaid Brown to trade for Siakam. Since Denver doesn't have any assets left, we will likely watch more or less same team, patching holes with vet min players.
Minny
Another team that has their core locked, while they managed to decently clean-up the books by trading KAT. They will likely be the first apron team moving forward, but they are comfortably below the 2nd apron. Their biggest need will be to replace Conley. Dillingham growing into that role would be their best option. If not, they will likely need to use the trade market with limited options beyond breaking up their core. Perhaps they should start exploring the long term Gobert situation on the team.
OKC
By extending JDub and Holmgren they are projected to be far over the second apron next season with their current team. However, they have several players still on rookie deals that are perhaps ready for bigger roles (Wallace, Topic, Ajay Mitchell) and plenty of future picks. So my biggest interest is what they do with Dort and Hartenstein next season, as they have team options on both of their deals (over 45 mil combined). It might not be smart to tear down a championship team during this season, but they both might become very available in the summer, if they want similar money going forward. Both can be instant starters on most of contenders.
Houston
They are becoming a first apron team, assuming they extend Durant at maximum possible number. Eason will be RFA next summer and his new deal could push them very close to (or over?) the second apron. A lot depends on how this season goes.
On a nerd level, I think Memphis is a team to watch over the next few years. They are probably not a contender even if Ja and JJJ are healthy ad productive, but they have no chance if they are not. Memphis FO does have an eye for talent and they still have a deep roster and they have proven to be a good regular season win team even with injuries.
What interests me is they have their first round picks. If they miss the playoffs they will get another lottery pick. In addition, they have the better of PHX and MIL first round pick this year. I assume PHX pick will be in the lottery. So they may wind up with two first round lottery picks with a potential deep draft. Just something to monitor.