One of the key issues as to why I think treading lightly is warranted with the current situation, is because of the potential for Nico to screw this up, and I don't even mean by attempting to trade Flagg away, since presumably Dumont won't let him. I'm talking about the need to pick a lane. Win now, vs the future. IMO, the former while still properly developing Flagg and having the assets in place to support him properly when he gets close to his prime years 3-4 years down the line, doesn't work with a strategy that aims to make the best effort possible to win now. If you wanna win now, you have to go hard with how you move assets, you can't mess around, because the conference is too strong, and the team has too many weaknesses. IMO you basically should be looking at trading Flagg if you absolutely want the win now strat to have a real chance of success. This team has too many weaknesses that I don't think marginal, even starting caliber type players makes up for. It really needs another true star. I also think the window while keeping Kyrie and AD as the foundations of the contention period is gonna be more like 2 years than 3-4 due to age and injury.
I think a hedge strategy (where essentially keeping Flagg is the only hedge) is going to result in a high likelihood of failure in the win now strat (too many weaknesses, too stacked conference), while also not providing enough assets to support Flagg with the team around him he needs when Kyrie and AD are over the hill because you are not valuing future assets in any moves you make, you are valuing immediate result assets, and throwing future value assets away to acquire them.
The opposite scenario, making moves to acquire future value assets and put a good, but not real contending team on the floor, but high potential to build a great team on Flagg's timeline I think means giving up on the win now scenario. It means looking to see what you get for AD and/or Kyrie. This is obviously the strat competent GMs would follow.
I think there is absolutely zero chance the latter is considered by Nico. Meaning we get a hedge scenario where Nico is handicapped due to not being able to trade his most tradeable asset, that has a high likelihood of causing the win now strat to fail, and leaves us with barely any assets when Flagg is hitting his straps in a few years. Flagg isn't a European who's only experiences in America will be playing in Dallas and putting down roots there like it was with Dirk and Luka. I don't expect similar loyalty to what those two showed.
Basically what I'm saying is the decision to keep Nico, even for just another season could have repercussions years down the line that render this 'miracle' a second big what if situation that we already have with Luka. I think Nico probably does stick around at least another year, and I think that's enough to potentially put us in a pretty bad position, since I think he 100% would trade Flagg given free reign, because it absolutely gives his win now strategy the best chance of success and therefore he will simply not make decisions congruent with having just drafted an 18 year old franchise level talent. I'm fully bracing for completely counter intuitive moves as long as he's still in charge, and that could be enough to cause major, even unrecoverable issues for any GM that eventually comes in to replace him. I know a great GM (if we somehow eventually land one), can always turn an asset poor franchise around, but it's a huge concern as long as Nico remains in the job, that our asset acquisition strategy will be completely and utterly counter intuitive.
All of the above might just be a lot of extra word salad that really boils down to Nico just being a bad GM (understatement) and the high likelihood that he simply makes really bad moves that significantly inhibit the team moving into the years you want to have the best team possible, which isn't now, but when Flagg is nearing/at his peak. Having true, uninhibited excitement about anything the team does isn't really possible while he's still the one making asset decisions, which is kinda ridiculous and sad, given how rare and incredible what happened at the lottery is.
I think a hedge strategy (where essentially keeping Flagg is the only hedge) is going to result in a high likelihood of failure in the win now strat (too many weaknesses, too stacked conference), while also not providing enough assets to support Flagg with the team around him he needs when Kyrie and AD are over the hill because you are not valuing future assets in any moves you make, you are valuing immediate result assets, and throwing future value assets away to acquire them.
The opposite scenario, making moves to acquire future value assets and put a good, but not real contending team on the floor, but high potential to build a great team on Flagg's timeline I think means giving up on the win now scenario. It means looking to see what you get for AD and/or Kyrie. This is obviously the strat competent GMs would follow.
I think there is absolutely zero chance the latter is considered by Nico. Meaning we get a hedge scenario where Nico is handicapped due to not being able to trade his most tradeable asset, that has a high likelihood of causing the win now strat to fail, and leaves us with barely any assets when Flagg is hitting his straps in a few years. Flagg isn't a European who's only experiences in America will be playing in Dallas and putting down roots there like it was with Dirk and Luka. I don't expect similar loyalty to what those two showed.
Basically what I'm saying is the decision to keep Nico, even for just another season could have repercussions years down the line that render this 'miracle' a second big what if situation that we already have with Luka. I think Nico probably does stick around at least another year, and I think that's enough to potentially put us in a pretty bad position, since I think he 100% would trade Flagg given free reign, because it absolutely gives his win now strategy the best chance of success and therefore he will simply not make decisions congruent with having just drafted an 18 year old franchise level talent. I'm fully bracing for completely counter intuitive moves as long as he's still in charge, and that could be enough to cause major, even unrecoverable issues for any GM that eventually comes in to replace him. I know a great GM (if we somehow eventually land one), can always turn an asset poor franchise around, but it's a huge concern as long as Nico remains in the job, that our asset acquisition strategy will be completely and utterly counter intuitive.
All of the above might just be a lot of extra word salad that really boils down to Nico just being a bad GM (understatement) and the high likelihood that he simply makes really bad moves that significantly inhibit the team moving into the years you want to have the best team possible, which isn't now, but when Flagg is nearing/at his peak. Having true, uninhibited excitement about anything the team does isn't really possible while he's still the one making asset decisions, which is kinda ridiculous and sad, given how rare and incredible what happened at the lottery is.